Some observers posit that the stock market behaves randomly, and that
there is no reliable predictive framework that allows us to know when
the uptrends are ending and the downtrends are near, and vice versa.
The right kind of technical analysis can yield useful predictions, however. The decision support engine,
a technical analysis system that tracks a wide range of data and looks
for historical patterns that are likely to repeat themselves, has
yielded accurate predictions about the broad market since early August.
Here are just a few of the articles describing its forecasts that were
published before the market's behavior confirmed them.
1. Aug. 7, 2015: "The Stock Market is Getting Ready to Plummet, but Volatility Will Soar"
2. Aug. 21, 2015: "Short-Sellers Should Take Profits Today as Markets Plunge" Must Read: 4 Stocks With Most Elite Dividend-Grower Status
3. Sept. 29, 2015: "Stocks Will Make a Multiweek Bounce Before the Coming Market Collapse"
Last Wednesday, there was an article titled, "5 Reasons the Stock Market Will Move Sharply Lower Soon,"
which highlighted the decision support engine's latest forecast. This
prediction still awaits the market's manifestation. In August, we asked
whether this year's big selloff would be like 2007-2008 or 1929.
Updated information shows that there still are reasons to expect either
of those scenarios, but right now the 2007 analogue has a slight edge.
If this is the market's path, the S&P 500's(^GSPC)
rise off the Aug. 24 low has mimicked the rise off the March 2008 low
into the lower high in May 2008. That May high marked the last
escape before the next 10 months saw the S&P 500 lose 53%. If that
happens in the next 12 to 24 months, the S&P 500 will test the 1050
zone. Click here to see the following chart in a new window
This weekly bar chart of the S&P 500 above shows the peak in
2007, the decline into March, then the rise to lower highs in May. That
May 2008 high intersected the just-broken lower channel line
(thick green line) from the underside, as well as the 200-day moving average (thin blue line) from the underside, in a classic "kiss goodbye" of long-standing previous support (which is now resistance).
The second chart is a monthly bar chart, and it shows how the current
scenario echoes that of 2007-2008. The red box from the first chart is
translated to the 2008 time frame, and the current scenario shows one,
as well. Notice that the lower just-broken channel lines, 200-day moving
averages, and even the initial touch of the lower
two-standard-deviation band (olive/gold line) are all eerily similar.
Then, drop down into the stochastics
pane and you will see the bold blue lines there highlighting the lower
highs in stochastics vs. higher highs in prices in the months leading
into the 2007 and 2015 peaks. Finally, the current stochastics are in
free fall, represented by the red stochastic widening the distance from
the green stochastic.
The market itself is the final arbiter, though, and there is no
guarantee that this echo will become the repeat, or even the rhyme, of
2007. Nevertheless, to remain fully invested in the market, not to
mention leveraged, for the marginal reward of a slightly higher new
high, while taking on the risk of what came in 2008 could be reckless. Must Read: The Week Ahead: Will Stocks Stay in the Black?
If the 1929 analogue is in play, prices will streak to higher highs
by New Year's Eve, if not Thanksgiving or even Halloween! All that is
needed to satisfy the pattern is an S&P 500 print above 2135 (less
than 3% higher Friday's close), while higher targets can be calculated
to 2400 +/-25. However, the conditions of waning volume, momentum, and
breadth, coupled with extreme complacency (i.e., the CBOE Volatility
Index, or VIX), bullishness (record New York Stock Exchange margin usage) and certainty that the Federal Reserve "has our backs" put this bubble into rarefied territory. Bulls are likely to get slaughtered in the near future.
The decision support engine is warning strongly that this is not the
time to be using buying actions in your portfolio (except for marrying
some put options to your beloved long positions). Rather, selling
actions are indicated, which means selling long positions, using sell
stops to protect profits and selling short. Sell, sell, sell! For more of this kind of analysis, join our new real-time, live-market analysis chat room.
Come benefit from decision support engine analysis from bell to bell,
addressing indices and stocks, as well as member questions throughout
the day. Special founding member pricing is available for TheStreet.com
readers who subscribe early, after enjoying a complimentary trial week.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held shares of ProShares Trust UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (SQQQ).
The Rice lab of chemist James Tour and colleagues at the Chinese Academy
of Sciences, the University of Texas at San Antonio and the University
of Houston have reported the development of a robust, solid-state
catalyst that shows promise to replace expensive platinum for hydrogen
generation.
A
new catalyst just 15 microns thick has proven nearly as effective as
platinum-based
catalysts but at a much lower cost, according to
scientists at Rice University. The
catalyst is made of nitrogen-doped
graphene with individual cobalt atoms that activate
Catalysts can split water into its constituent hydrogen and oxygen
atoms, a process required for fuel cells. The latest discovery, detailed
in Nature Communications, is a significant step toward lower-cost
catalysts for energy production, according to the researchers.
“What’s unique about this paper is that we show not the use of metal
particles, not the use of metal nanoparticles, but the use of atoms,”
Tour said. “The particles doing this chemistry are as small as you can
possibly get.”
Even particles on the nanoscale work only at the surface, he said.
“There are so many atoms inside the nanoparticle that never do anything.
But in our process the atoms driving catalysis have no metal atoms next
to them. We’re getting away with very little cobalt to make a catalyst
that nearly matches the best platinum catalysts.” In comparison tests,
he said the new material nearly matched platinum’s efficiency to begin
reacting at a low onset voltage, the amount of electricity it needs to
begin separating water into hydrogen and oxygen.
The new catalyst is mixed as a solution and can be reduced to a
paper-like material or used as a surface coating. Tour said single-atom
catalysts have been realized in liquids, but rarely on a surface. “This
way we can build electrodes out of it,” he said. “It should be easy to
integrate into devices.”
The researchers discovered that heat-treating graphene oxide and small
amounts of cobalt salts in a gaseous environment forced individual
cobalt atoms to bind to the material.
Electron microscope images showed cobalt atoms widely dispersed throughout the samples.
They tested nitrogen-doped graphene on its own and found it lacked the
ability to kick the catalytic process into gear. But adding cobalt in
very small amounts significantly increased its ability to split acidic
or basic water.
“This is an extremely high-performance material,” Tour said. He noted
platinum-carbon catalysts still boast the lowest onset voltage. “No
question, they’re the best. But this is very close to it and much easier
to produce and hundreds of times less expensive.”
Atom-thick graphene is the ideal substrate, Tour said, because of its
high surface area, stability in harsh operating conditions and high
conductivity. Samples of the new catalyst showed a negligible decrease
in activity after 10 hours of accelerated degradation studies in the
lab.
Abstract
Reduction of water to hydrogen through electrocatalysis holds great
promise for clean energy, but its large-scale application relies on the
development of inexpensive and efficient catalysts to replace precious
platinum catalysts. Here we report an electrocatalyst for hydrogen
generation based on very small amounts of cobalt dispersed as individual
atoms on nitrogen-doped graphene. This catalyst is robust and highly
active in aqueous media with very low overpotentials (30 mV). A variety
of analytical techniques and electrochemical measurements suggest that
the catalytically active sites are associated with the metal centres
coordinated to nitrogen. This unusual atomic constitution of supported
metals is suggestive of a new approach to preparing extremely efficient
single-atom catalysts.
The semi-transparent, inexpensive solar cells have a claimed
conversion efficiency of around 12 percent
(Credit: Hong Kong Polytechnic University)
With the continued rise in the uptake of solar cells, consumers are now
looking at less obtrusive ways to incorporate these in buildings and vehicles. Transparent or semi-transparent cells
provide greater flexibility and visual appeal than standard, opaque
silicon solar cells, however their relatively high-cost and poor
efficiencies have meant that their adoption has been slow. To help remedy
this, researchers working at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University
(PolyU) have created semi-transparent, efficient, low-cost perovskite
solar cells with graphene electrodes.
First generation silicon solar cells have been the
mainstay of photovoltaic (PV) energy conversion for many years now due
to their high stability and efficient energy conversion,
but their opacity and expense mean that alternatives are now being
actively sought for modern building and vehicle applications. Thin
film PVs (second generation solar cells) are lightweight and flexible,
but are expensive because
they are created from rare materials using complex structures requiring
high-temperature production processes.
Now, utilizing such materials as thin-film
perovskite, the third generation of solar cell is currently being
developed for commercial use in the not-too-distant future with the
promise of greater power conversion
efficiencies, simpler fabrication processes, and lower cost.
In this vein, the PolyU researchers have developed
their own version of the third generation solar cell using
semitransparent perovskite with graphene used as the electrodes.
Being exceptionally thin but with high conductivity and low cost,
graphene makes an ideal choice for semitransparent solar cells as it
allows light to be absorbed from both sides. As such, the researchers
envisage these devices potentially able to be used in windows, louvers,
and
building roof surfaces, thereby increasing the available surface area
for collecting solar energy.
With a claimed power conversion efficiency of around 12 percent, the PolyU solar cells outperform standard transparent and semi-transparent versions hands-down. The potential to be produced at less
than HK $0.50 (US $0.06)/Watt also means a greater than 50 percent saving on the
cost of conventional silicon solar cells.
While graphene has been around for more than a decade
now and is highly-efficient as a conductor in its own right, the PolyU
researchers decided to further enhance the conductivity of graphene to
meet their specific requirements. To do this, the graphene was coated
with a patina of PEDOT:PSS conductive polymer
(poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene)
polystyrene sulfonate) – the same ingredient recently used by KAIST scientists in the production of weavable LED fibers –
that also acted as an adhesion layer to the perovskite during the process of lamination.
To promote power conversion efficiency, the
researchers found that by multilayering
graphene through chemical vapor deposition to create transparent
electrodes, the sheet resistance of the
electrodes was additionally reduced while the exceptional transparency
of the electrodes was retained. Finally, the performance of the device
was further improved by enhancing the degree of contact between the top
graphene electrodes and the hole transport layer on the
perovskite film.
According to the researchers, the exceptional
flexibility of graphene and the simplified preparation of the cells
means that the PolyU device could be eminently suitable for
mass production via direct
printing or using a roll-to-roll process. In this way, semitransparent
solar cells may well provide a greater uptake of PV panels across
markets not currently serviced by traditional, opaque devices.
The results of this research were published in the journal Advanced Materials.
Source: Hong Kong Polytechnic University
http://nextbigfuture.com/
September 29, 2015
Galfenol can convert 70 percent of an applied mechanical energy into magnetic energy
Galfenol converts energy with high efficiency; it is able to turn
roughly 70 percent of an applied mechanical energy into magnetic energy,
and vice versa. (A standard car, by contrast, converts only about 15 to
30 percent of the stored energy in gasoline into useful motion.)
Significantly, the magnetoelastic effect can be used to generate
electricity. "If we wrap some wires around the material, we can generate
an electrical current in the wire due to a change in magnetization,"
Domann said.
Galfenol in experiments using a device called a Split-Hopkinson Pressure
Bar to generate high amounts of compressive stress (e.g., powerful
impacts). They found that when subjected to impacts, Galfenol generates
as much as 80 megawatts of instantaneous power per cubic meter.
By way of comparison, a device known as an explosively driven
ferromagnetic pulse generator produces 500 megawatts of power per cubic
meter. However, as their name implies, such generators require an
explosion—one that destroys the ferromagnet, even as it produces power.
Among the potential applications, Galfenol-powered devices could be used
as wireless impact detectors. "Essentially, we could fabricate small
devices that send out a detectable electromagnetic wave when a
mechanical pulse moves through it," Domann said. These devices could be
embedded in vehicles—military or civilian—to detect collisions. Because
electromagnetic waves travel three orders of magnitude faster than
mechanical waves, information about the impact could be transmitted
ahead of the waves created by the impact.
This picture is of the experimental setup showing the Hopkinson bar
surrounded by a water-cooled electromagnet. A cylinder of Galfenol
is
inside of the electromagnet, sandwiched between the Hopkinson bars.
The
magnet was used to apply a wide range of static magnetic fields to
Galfenol while it was mechanically impacted. Credit: John Domann/UCLA
This paper presents the experimental measurements of a highly
magnetoelastic material (Galfenol) under impact loading. A
Split-Hopkinson Pressure Bar was used to generate compressive stress up
to 275 MPa at strain rates of either 20/s or 33/s while measuring the
stress-strain response and change in magnetic flux density due to
magnetoelastic coupling. The average Young's modulus (44.85 GPa) was
invariant to strain rate, with instantaneous stiffness ranging from 25
to 55 GPa. A lumped parameters model simulated the measured pickup coil
voltages in response to an applied stress pulse. Fitting the model to
the experimental data provided the average piezomagnetic coefficient and
relative permeability as functions of field strength. The model
suggests magnetoelastic coupling is primarily insensitive to strain
rates as high as 33/s. Additionally, the lumped parameters model was
used to investigate magnetoelastic transducers as potential pulsed power
sources. Results show that Galfenol can generate large quantities of
instantaneous power (80 MW/m3 ), comparable to explosively driven
ferromagnetic pulse generators (500 MW/m3 ). However, this process is
much more efficient and can be cyclically carried out in the linear
elastic range of the material, in stark contrast with explosively driven
pulsed power generators.
A Kolsky bar was used to generate large constant strain rates in
Galfenol, and measure the stress-strain response, as well as the change
in magnetic flux density due to magnetoelastic coupling. The
experimental results indicate that the average Young's modulus of
Galfenol is invariant with increasing strain rates of up to 33/s. The
measured voltage was proportional to strain rate, with a more rounded
appearance, attributed to dynamic magnetic effects. Furthermore, the
measured voltage and change in flux were highly dependent on bias field
strength. A lumped parameters model was created that effectively
simulates the measured pickup coil voltages in response to an applied
stress pulse. The model suggests that magnetoelastic coupling is
relatively insensitive to strain rates as high as 33/s. The model also
suggests that Galfenol can generate large quantities of instantaneous
power, comparable to those created by explosively driven ferromagnetic
pulse generators. However, this process is much more efficient and can
be cyclically carried out in the linear elastic range of the material,
in stark contrast with explosively driven pulsed power generators.
SOURCES- UCLA, Phys.org, Journal of Applied Physics
http://nextbigfuture.com/
September 29, 2015
Solar Cells Will be Made Obsolete by 3D rectennas aiming at 40-to-90% efficiency
Right now efficiency is only one percent, but professor Baratunde Cola
and colleagues at the Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech,
Atlanta) convincingly argue that they can achieve 40 percent broad
spectrum efficiency (double that of silicon and more even than
multi-junction gallium arsenide) at a one-tenth of the cost of
conventional solar cells (and with an upper limit of 90 percent
efficiency for single wavelength conversion).
It is well suited for mass production, according to Cola. It works by
growing fields of carbon nanotubes vertically, the length of which
roughly matches the wavelength of the energy source (one micron for
solar), capping the carbon nanotubes with an insulating dielectric
(aluminum oxide on the tethered end of the nanotube bundles), then
growing a low-work function metal (calcium/aluminum) on the dielectric
and voila--a rectenna with a two electron-volt potential that collects
sunlight and converts it to direct current (DC).
"Our process uses three simple steps: grow a large array of nanotube
bundles vertically; coat one end with dielectric; then deposit another
layer of metal," Cola told EE Times. "In effect we are using one end of
the nanotube as a part of a super-fast metal-insulator-metal tunnel
diode, making mass production potentially very inexpensive up to
10-times cheaper than crystalline silicon cells."
For commercialization, billions or even trillions of carbon-nanotube
bundles could be grown side-by-side, ramping up the power output into
the megaWatt range, after optimization for higher efficiency.
"We still have a lot of work to do to lower contact resistance which
will improve the impedance match between the antenna and diode, thus
raising efficiency," Cola told us."Our proof-of-concept was tuned to the
near-infrared. We used infrared-, solar- and green laser-light and got
efficiencies of less than one percent, but what was key to our demo was
we showed our computer model matched our experimental results, giving us
the confidence that we can improve the efficiency up to 40 percent in
just a few years."
For the future, Cola's group has a three tiered goal--first develop
sensor applications that don't require high efficiencies, second to get
the efficiency to 20 percent for harvesting waste heat in the infrared
spectrum, then start replacing standard solar cells with 40 percent
efficient panels in the visible spectrum. The team is also seeking
suitable flexible substrates for applications that require bending.
Schematic
of the components making up the optical rectenna--carbon nanotubes
capped with a metal-oxide-metal tunneling diode. (Credit: Thomas
Bougher)
(Source: Georgia Tech)
An optical rectenna—a device that directly converts free-propagating
electromagnetic waves at optical frequencies to direct current—was first
proposed over 40 years ago, yet this concept has not been demonstrated
experimentally due to fabrication challenges at the nanoscale. Realizing
an optical rectenna requires that an antenna be coupled to a diode that
operates on the order of 1 pHz (switching speed on the order of 1 fs).
Diodes operating at these frequencies are feasible if their capacitance
is on the order of a few attofarads but they remain extremely difficult
to fabricate and to reliably couple to a nanoscale antenna. Here we
demonstrate an optical rectenna by engineering metal–insulator–metal
tunnel diodes, with a junction capacitance of ∼2 aF, at the tip of
vertically aligned multiwalled carbon nanotubes (∼10 nm in diameter),
which act as the antenna. Upon irradiation with visible and infrared
light, we measure a d.c. open-circuit voltage and a short-circuit
current that appear to be due to a rectification process (we account for
a very small but quantifiable contribution from thermal effects). In
contrast to recent reports of photodetection based on hot electron decay
in a plasmonic nanoscale antenna a coherent optical antenna field
appears to be rectified directly in our devices, consistent with
rectenna theory. Finally, power rectification is observed under
simulated solar illumination, and there is no detectable change in diode
performance after numerous current–voltage scans between 5 and 77 °C,
indicating a potential for robust operation.
Nose art was the technique of decorating combat aircraft during the
World War II. We know, we have already shown you some nose art, but we
just cannot resist them.
Female
pin-up art dominated World War II nose art, seeing its Golden Age
through the Korean War, tolerated by Army Air Force officials to help
boost the morale of the soldiers fighting in stressful wars with high
probabilities of death.
Take a look at the below collection of cheeky pin-ups airplane nose art.
Smart TVs are extremely convenient. Generally, they include
integrated Wi-Fi which allows you to tap into the Internet to stream
content from one of many providers like Netflix or Hulu. Of course,
Smart TVs are a relatively new development. Not all TVs can connect
directly to the Internet and stream content, at least not without
another device hooked up.
You can always purchase a set-top device like Roku, Google
Chromecast, Apple TV, or even the Amazon Fire TV. However, these devices
have limitations on what type of content or media they can stream. It
would be much more beneficial to connect a computer or PC to your TV.
Then you can stream all kinds of media, but you can also browse the
Internet, play games, and run applications.
Nobody wants a large tower sitting beside their TV, though, and
laptops tend to look silly, and, really, they’re only temporarily useful
in this regard. Who wants a messy console or entertainment system with
wires protruding everywhere?
That’s where Mini PCs or HTPCs come into play.
1. HP Pavilion Mini
Source store.hp.com
The HP Pavilion Mini is a budget-friendly mini PC that can give your dumb TV a complete overhaul for about $320.
It’s powered by a 1.7GHz dual-core Intel Pentium 3558U processor and
4GB of RAM. It also has a 500GB SATA drive for storage and Wi-Fi 802.11
b/g/n support. There are plenty of peripheral ports too such as a
DisplayPort, HDMI, USB 3.0, Ethernet, 3.5mm audio, and an SD card slot.
It even comes with a wireless mouse and keyboard.
Why is all of this relevant? Again, you can connect this affordable
Windows desktop to your TV and effectively turn it into a “smart” TV
complete with Internet access and streaming capabilities. Since it’s
essentially a slimmed down desktop, you’ll be afforded much more
functionality than if you were to go with a set-top box like the
Chromecast or something similar.
Even better, you have the option of customizing the experience;
meaning you can tailor it to meet your needs. If you want to install
something like Kodi — previously named XBMC — and completely transform
your TV into a digital multi-media center you can do just that.
2. ASUS Chromebox
Source: promos.asus.com
The Asus Chromebox offers
something a little different. Instead of a desktop running Windows,
you’re getting a system powered by Google’s Chrome OS.
It’s important to note that with the Chrome OS everything is
essentially done within a browser window. If that’s a turn-off to you
then take a look at one of the other mini PCs on this list.
There are three models to choose from: one packing an Intel Celeron
dual-core processor with 2GB of RAM, another with an Intel Core i3
processor and 4GB of RAM, and much more powerful variant with an Intel
Core i7 processor and 4GB of RAM. Other than the 4K video support for
the Core i3 and i7 models there’s really no reason to pick up one of
those as a consumer. The added power won’t do much when working with the
Chrome OS. Not to mention you can always upgrade the available RAM
later by adding more.
Additional features include Bluetooth 4.0, Wi-Fi 802.11 b/g/n, and a
bundled keyboard and mouse; wireless or wired, your choice. There are a
plethora of ports such as a DisplayPort, HDMI, Ethernet, 3.5mm audio,
USB 3.0, and an SD card slot.
If you’ve ever used a Chromebook before then you’ll feel right at
home with the Chromebox. If not, you might want to do a bit of research
on the Chrome OS before making the leap. Still, it’s a great system
especially if you want to turn your boring old TV into something much
more accessible.
3. Apple Mac Mini
Source: apple.com
If you’re partial to Apple products and would much rather have a slimmed down system running OS X, then the Apple Mac Mini is
the way to go. It’s quite a bit more expensive than some of the other
PCs on this list, starting at $499. Depending on the features you
choose, it may be as high as $999.
Like the other mini PCs on this list, it’s a compact, portable
desktop that you can connect to any display and turn “smart”. It comes
with the keyboard and mouse you’ll need to operate the system, so no
worries there. In fact, it comes with everything you need right out of
the box.
The cheapest model is powered by a 1.4GHz dual-core Intel i5
processor and 4GB of DDR3 RAM. It’s also packing an Intel HD Graphics
5000 chipset and a 500GB hard drive for storage.
All you need to do is plug it into a display and you’re off! It’s
essentially like taking a Mac — laptop or desktop — and hooking it up to
your living room TV. You can browse the web, watch videos, play music,
play games, and much more. Since it’s running OS X Yosemite, you even
have access to Apple’s robust selection of applications including
Photos, iMovie, GarageBand, Pages, Numbers, and Keynote.
You can’t go wrong with this one.
4. Mintbox Mini
Source: fit-pc.com
Not a fan of Windows, Mac OS X, or Chrome OS? No problem! Take a look at the Mintbox Mini, a lightweight, portable computer running the Linux Mint distro.
For hardware, it includes an AMD A4 6400T quad-core processor, 4GB of
RAM, and Radeon R3 graphics out of the box. In addition, it has a 64GB
solid state drive for storage. What does all of this mean in layman’s
terms? If you’re a layman you’re probably not going with a Linux
machine, but that’s OK, we’ll indulge you anyway.
The Mintbox Mini is more than capable of handling HD video playback,
web browsing, productivity tasks, and software applications. For
connectivity, it offers HDMI, 3.5mm audio, microSD, and USB 3.0. Of
course, it has an Ethernet port and Wi-Fi 802.11 b/g/n support, as
well. The most impressive feature is that the processor is passively
cooled, which means the Mintbox is virtually silent.
It’s $295, with a portion of the sales used to fund Linux Mint development, and it comes with a 5-year warranty.
5. Zotac Zbox Pico
Source: zotac.com
If you’re looking for something ridiculously small and lightweight, then you might want to consider the Zotac Zbox Pico. The case for the Pico measures only 4.6 x 2.6 x 0.8 inches. To spell it out for you, this little guy can fit in your pocket.
It’s running Windows 8.1 out of the box and has some pretty solid
hardware inside for such a small device. An Intel Atom quad-core
processor and 2GB DDR3 RAM power this thing, with Intel HD graphics and
32GB of internal storage. Then there’s USB 2.0, microSD, Ethernet, and
HDMI ports. Top it all off with Bluetooth 4.0 and Wi-Fi 802.11n wireless
connectivity and you’ve got yourself a decent little rig.
Sadly, it doesn’t come bundled with a keyboard and mouse so you’ll
need to lug those around with you if you don’t have them handy. Still,
this thing is such a great way to get your dumb TV hooked up to the
Internet and streaming content. You might even throw it in your pocket
and take it to a friend’s to make their dumb TV smarter for the evening.
Forty-seven human teeth dug up out of a cave in southern China reveal that our species, Homo sapiens, may have arrived in China 80,000 years ago — long before humans were able to leave their mark on Northern China and Europe.
The
findings, published in the journal Nature, may compel researchers to
reconsider the current view of human migrations out of Africa — and
could hint that Neanderthals may have been a much greater barrier to
Europe than previously thought.
"I really think it’s opening a new period of understanding and more
creative thinking about the other possibilities of long-established
models," said paleoanthropologist MarÃa Martinón-Torres of University
College London, who co-led the study with Wu Liu and Xiu-jie Wu of the
Chinese Academy of Sciences. See the most-read stories in Science this hour >>
Scientists believe that Homo sapiens first
emerged in East Africa somewhere between 190,000 and 160,000 years ago,
spread into the eastern Mediterranean around 100,000 to 60,000 years ago
but then were replaced by Neanderthals after that, according to Robin
Dennell of the University of Exeter, who was not involved in the paper.
The successful dispersal westward into Europe would not have come
until much later, around 40,000 years ago. And scientists think that our
species didn’t trek eastward until around 60,000 years ago, an idea
based on some genetic estimates as well as on the similarities between
stone tools in South Africa dated to 60,000 years ago and some in South
Asia from 36,000 to 30,000 years ago.
Paleoanthropologists have
looked to the karst caves in southern China that are full of fossils,
but it has been hard to pin down a date on the specimens gathered — or
even to tell which hominid species the fossils belong to.
Fuyan
Cave in Hunan province, where these teeth were found, has an ideal mix
of features that allowed scientists to pin down the fossils’ age. (Teeth
often are the best-preserved remains in an acidic environment like a
karst cave because enamel is the hardest tissue in the human body, and
dentin, while not quite as hard, is still harder than bone.)
For
such fossils, understanding their context — where they were located, how
deep they were buried — is vital because each layer of rock represents a
different epoch in time. The deeper the objects were found, the older
they are. So if those layers are disturbed in any way, it becomes very
difficult for excavators to tell the true age of those fossils.
Luckily,
in Fuyan Cave, a layer of flowstone had grown over the layer that held
the human teeth, sealing them in and preventing them from being
disturbed. Over the flowstone grew a stalagmite, which was dated to at
least 80,100 years old — which means all the material below it, teeth
included, must be older.
Beneath the flowstone, the scientists
also found mammalian fossils from 38 species as well as five extinct
large mammals, including Stegodon orientalis (a relative of mammoths and elephants) and Ailuropoda baconi
(an ancestor of the giant panda). These animals must have come from a
period of time known as the Upper Pleistocene, about 125,000 to 10,000
years ago.
Together, the stalagmite and the mammalian fossils
allowed researchers to put an upper limit on the age of the human teeth.
Their owners must have lived sometime between 80,000 and 120,000 years
ago.
Taken together, these teeth look remarkably like those of
contemporary humans; they’re smaller and smoother than those of earlier
human species, such as Homo erectus.
“The fact that the
teeth resemble those of Upper Pleistocene Europeans and modern humans
implies that the population they came from were immigrants and not the
outcome of local evolution from H. erectus,” Dennell wrote in a
commentary on the study. “To place these finds in their continental
context, the Fuyan teeth indicate that modern humans were present in
southern China 30,000 to 60,000 years earlier than in the eastern
Mediterranean and Europe.”
That’s a pretty big difference between
the two populations, and it could hint that our relatives the
Neanderthals could have been the reason that Homo sapiens
failed to break into the continent on their apparent first try. Before
this, many thought that modern humans fairly quickly led to the demise
of Neanderthals as they moved through Europe; but perhaps Neanderthals
were a bigger block than previously believed.
“We should not rule out the possibility that H. neanderthalensis
was for a long time an additional barrier for modern humans’ expansion,
who could only settle in Europe when Neanderthal populations started to
fade,” the study authors wrote.
There could be other explanations for the delay in getting to Europe, others said.
“The
predominantly colder winter conditions of the enormous landmass between
Europe and northern China may better explain the earlier colonization
of southern zones,” Dennell wrote.
Either way, it opens up a lot
of questions about whether, and how, this migration into southern China
relates to the human population today,” Martinón-Torres said. Did these
humans die out before being replaced with a later migration? Did they
somehow mix with other African homo sapiens who later spread to other continents?
“We
really have a lot of new questions about the origin of current
populations. ... I think it’s an exciting period, in that sense,” she
said.
Early on in Pan, a young Peter Pan asks “where’s the bacon” when being served a watery bowl of gruel at an orphanage in World War II London.
Little did British director Joe Wright and Warner Bros. know how prophetic the question would become.
Over
the weekend, the ambitious Peter Pan origin story bombed at the North
American box office, grossing a paltry $15.5 million despite a $150
million production budget and a friendly PG rating. Pan, from
Warner Bros. and co-financing partner RatPac-Dune Entertainment, could
lose more than $100 million unless the live-action movie does huge
business overseas, a tough proposition.
The
film took in $20.5 million this weekend internationally from 52 markets
representing 40 percent of the foreign marketplace, putting its early
global total at a worrisome $40.6 million (it opened in Australia two
weekends ago). One hope is China, where Pan rolls out Oct. 22. So far, it is doing best in Latin America, while struggling in Europe.
Wright’s
grand plan for his trip to Neverland didn’t pan out. The lucrative
family audience rejected the live-action film, starring Hugh Jackman,
Rooney Mara, Garrett Hedlund, newcomer Levi Miller and plenty of special
effects. It’s another blow for the leadership at at Warners, which has
suffered a string of misses this year, including pricey titles Jupiter Ascending and The Man from U.N.C.L.E.
The studio declined comment on Pan’s
performance, but one Warners executive said, “it came in so much
lighter than anything we could have predicted. The movie failed to bring
in an audience of any size.”
Only 23 percent of Pan’s audience was under the age of 18. As a way of comparison, 44 percent of ticket buyers going to see Disney’s live-action Cinderella earlier this year were under the age of 18.
Females, and especially younger females, fueled hits like Cinderella and Disney’s Maleficent. Femmes made up 77 percent of Cinderella’s audience on opening weekend and 60 percent of Maleficent ticket buyers. This demo were less keen to see Pan, making up 55 percent of the audience.
Leading up to its release, Pan
was ravaged by critics. Some reviewers described it as a sort ofIndiana
Jones meets Avatar, with Jackman’s Blackbeard compared to the villain
in Mad Max: Fury Road. And Wright’s decision to have Blackbeard
and his gang of pirates sing Nirvana’s “Smells Like Teen Spirit” was
heavily debated. Pan is the first studio tentpole directed by Wright, known for speciality fare like Atonement and Pride and Prejudice.
“Reboots
are always tricky,” said box-office analyst Phil Contrino. “There’s
always the risk that fans of a property won’t be in tune with the new
vision and that seems to be what has happened here.”
Adds a rival studio executive, “Pan is neither fish nor fowl. It’s trying to be too many things.”
The
film also sparked controversy when Wright chose Mara, instead of a
Native American actress, to play Tiger Lily, prompting a petition urging
Warner Bros. to stop casting white actors as people of color.
“Tough
reviews, a change of release date and other factors conspired to create
this opening weekend performance. Certainly, while the origin story
concept in and of itself is not a bad thing, audiences may have had
trouble grasping the concept of the film,” said Paul Dergarabedian of
Rentrak. “The silver lining may come in the international theatrical
marketplace and of course down the road on home video where curious
audiences may want to check out the film and have additional in home
content for their kids.”
Pan
was originally set to open this past July, but a worried Warners
delayed its release to fall, presumably a quieter corridor. The movie
had tested poorly, and the studio wanted to do reshoots. But that plan
didn’t quite work out.
Dergarabedian and Contrino cite competition from holdovers The Martian and Hotel Transylvania 2 as another reason Pan got destroyed. Over the weekend, 10 percent of The Martian’s audience was under the age of 18, proof that families are turning out to see the space epic, starring Matt Damon. And Hotel Transylvania 2 is a natural draw for younger kids.
For Hotel Transylvania 2 to beat Pan in its third weekend, both domestically and internationally, is a stinging blow.
“Following the huge success of Hotel Transylvania 2 wasn’t an easy task,” says Contrino. “And it definitely stole away some of the momentum Pan might have had.”