With each passing day, France’s blockbuster $22 billion Rafale fighter jet deal with India dies another death.
Western main stream media says very little about the blowback from Hollande’s disastrous Mistral pullback with Russia.
Their silence may have to do with the fact that Hollande’s decision
to break off, the paid in full, Mistral ship deal with Russia has not
only lead to India’s hesitation to do business with France’s Military
Industrial Complex, but the country that will now be handling India’s
massive fighter jet order is non other than Russia. Karma!
How big of a loss is this for Hollande, and how big of a win is this for Putin…let’s put it into perspective.
By not delivering the Mistral ships, France will have to return the $1.45 billion (already paid for) back to Russia.
France’s reputation as a trusted military arms provider has been
irreparably damaged. Hollande cowered to pressure from Washington and
failed to honor a contractual business agreement.
India, seeing that France cannot be trusted to conduct business in
good faith and with sovereignty, is now pulling back from a massive $22
billion Rafale fighter jet deal with France.
The money allocated to the French industrial complex will now go to Russia’s military industrial complex.
Russia may have lost two Mistral Helicopter ships, but it will get
it’s $1.45 billion back from France, plus another cool $25 billion deal
with India. Who is isolated again?
ITAR TASS Reports…
“Faced with continuing deadlock in the mega deal to
acquire 126 French Rafale fighters, India is now pressing the throttle
to seal the even bigger project with Russia for the stealth
fifth-generation fighter aircraft (FGFA),” the newspaper wrote. “India will overall spend around $25 billion on the FGFA project
if it goes ahead with its plan to induct 127 such fighters, as earlier
reported by TOI.
Meanwhile, India is ready to forego the earlier plan for a 50:50
design and work-share agreement with Russia on its under-development
FGFA called PAK-FA or Sukhoi T-50.”
The PAK FA – “Prospective Airborne Complex of Frontline Aviation” –
is a fifth-generation fighter program of the Russian Air Force. The T-50
is the aircraft designed by Sukhoi for the PAK FA program. The aircraft
is a single-seat, twin-engine jet fighter, and will be the first
operational aircraft in Russian service to use stealth technology. It is
a multirole combat aircraft designed for the air superiority and ground
attack functions. It combines supercruise, stealth, manoeuvrability,
and advanced avionics to overcome previous generation fighter aircraft
along with many ground and maritime defences.
The PAK FA is intended to be the successor to the MiG-29 and Su-27 in
the Russian Air Force and serve as the basis for the Fifth Generation
Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) being co-developed by Sukhoi and Hindustan
Aeronautics Limited (HAL) for the Indian Air Force. The T-50 prototype
first flew on 29 January 2010 and production aircraft is slated for
delivery to the Russian Air Force starting in 2016. The prototypes and
initial production batch will be delivered with a highly upgraded
variant of the AL-31F used by the Su-27 family as interim engines while a
new clean-sheet design powerplant is currently under development. The
aircraft is expected to have a service life of up to 35 years.
India and Russia have crossed the first milestone towards the
development of the fifth generation fighter aircraft (FGFA), completing
the preliminary design of the plane.
“The preliminary design contract (PDC) for the Russian-Indian fifth
generation aircraft has been executed,” Russia’s Sukhoi aircraft company
announced on Wednesday.
The Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) signed the $295-million PDC
contract in December 2010 with the Sukhoi company, which is responsible
in Russia for developing the PAK-FA (perspective aviation
complex-frontline aircraft), as the FGFA is called in Russia.
“The aircraft design has been fully developed,” Sukhoi said in a press
release. “Both parties have agreed upon on the amount and division of
work during the research and development (R&D) stage. A contract for
the R&D is being prepared. It is to be signed this year.”
Under the PDC contract Sukhoi has also trained Indian engineers and
provided HAL with the data and software needed to create a single
working environment. A team of HAL engineers and IAF experts has been
working at Sukhoi’s design bureau in Moscow, while Russian engineers
have been assigned to HAL.
Four T-50 aircraft, the Russian prototype of the fifth generation
fighter, have already performed more than 200 test flights since January
2010.
The customised FGFA version will have “some differences” from the
Russian prototype to meet “specific requirements of the Indian Air
Force,” the Sukhoi announcement said.
Russian experts said the FGFA will differ in “mission hardware and
software,” as well as weapons. India has dropped its initial plan to
redesign the single-seat T-50 into a twin-seat version.
Air Chief Marshal N.A.K. Browne told reporters at Aero India-2013 that
India is to receive from Russia the first prototype of the
fifth-generation fighter in 2014, followed by two more in 2017 and 2018.
The FGFA is expected to go into series production by 2022.
This is India’s biggest-ever defence project and its largest defence
deal with Russia. It is expected to cost India more than $30 billion.
However, last year India scaled down its original plan to acquire 214
planes by one-third, to 144 aircraft, citing time and cost factors.
Russia plans to induct 60 planes at an estimated price tag of $100
million per aircraft.
While the sun may have set on
the British Empire, the United Kingdom is once again ramping up its
presence in Asia with the announcement of new military cooperation with
Japan. The renewed British focus on the region comes even as London
makes efforts to build greater economic ties with Beijing.
According to the UK Ministry of Defense (MOD), the British would like
to increase defense industrial cooperation with Japan. The UK also
wants to pursue joint exercises with Japan—which could include a 2016
Royal Air Force (RAF) deployment of Eurofighter Typhoon air superiority
fighters to the island nation.
“Japan is our closest security partner in Asia and I want to
significantly deepen defense cooperation between our two nations,”
British defense secretary Michael Fallon in aJan. 8 statement.
“We will do that through joint exercises, reciprocal access to our
military bases, military personnel exchanges and cooperation on
equipment, including a new air-to-air missile.”
Britain and Japan are most interested in cooperating on cyber-warfare
and developing a new long-range air-to-air missile that would be a
generation ahead of the MBDA Meteor or the AIM-120D AMRAAM. Theaging AMRAAM—which
is used by both countries—is soon going to be outranged by China’s
PL-15 and is very vulnerable to enemy digital radio frequency memory
jamming.
“Following the success of the first round of talks on the
Co-operative Research Project on the Feasibility of a Joint New
Air-to-Air Missile (JNAAM), the Ministers confirmed discussions would
move to the second stage,” the MOD statement read. Japan has also had
some discussions with U.S. defense officials and industry about
developing an AMRAAM successor.
On the cyber-warfare front, Japan and Britain are strengthening
information sharing and cooperation. “It was also confirmed that the two
nations intend to conduct a joint research project in 2016 with
UK-U.S.-Japan military cyber analysts and are aiming to conduct joint
cyber exercises with Japan,” the MOD statement reads.
The British government also believes that it could also cooperate
with Japan on mine hunting, improving amphibious capability and
improving counter-Improvised Explosive Device capabilities. The UK also
welcomes increased Japanese participation in NATO exchanges and joint
exercises, the MOD stated.
At the same time, the British government affirmed its support
for Tokyo’s recent efforts to reinterpret its pacifist constitution to
permit a wider definition of self-defense. “The UK welcomed Japan’s
recent Legislation for Peace and Security, and supported Japan playing a
more proactive role in securing global peace, stability and prosperity
through its policy of ‘Proactive Contribution to Peace’ based on the
principle of international cooperation,” reads the MOD statement.
The Japanese, for their part, expressed their relief that Britain is
once again playing a more active role in the Asia-Pacific region.
“Last year, the UK published the SDSR [Strategic Defense and Security
Review]. In this, the UK reaffirmed its commitment to its presence as a
global power,” said Japanese minister of defense Gen Nakatani
in a statement. “The SDSR highlighted Japan as the closest security
partner in Asia, and I highly regard this statement. In the same year,
we have reformed our legislation concerning peace and security. Through
these processes, our two nations have confirmed the further commitment
of the stability of the world.”
It’s not clear how China will react to the news of this cooperation,
but given the antipathy between China and Japan, it is not likely to be
openly welcomed. Dave Majumdar is the defense editor for the National Interest. You can follow him on Twitter: @davemajumdar. Image: Wikimedia Commons/SAC Scott Lewis/MOD.
Revealed: China's Lethal Low-Cost Fighter Goes Global
Beijing and Islamabad have
officially signed on their first export customers for the
Chengdu/Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) JF-17 Thunder—which is also
known as the FC-1 Xiaolong in its native China. Nigeria and Sri Lanka
are set to become the first customers for the Chinese jet.
According toNigeria’s Punch,
the oil-rich African nation expects to buy three JF-17 in 2016. “Giving
details of the weapons to be acquired for the operation of the Navy,
the fiscal document states that the sum of N5bn ($25 million) is
budgeted for the procurement of three JF-17 Thunder multirole combat
aircraft,” the paper reported citing a leaked budget document.
Meanwhile,Defense News
reveals that Sri Lanka has sign on to buy an initial eight JF-17 jets
during Pakistani prime minister Nawaz Sharif's three-day visit to
Colombo. News of the deal is likely to be met with fury from India,
which has been actively discouraging its neighbor from forging stronger
defense links with Islamabad and Beijing. The JF-17 would be used to
replace a portion of Sri Lanka’s existing fleet of Chengdu F-7s, Israeli
Kfirs and Soviet-built MiG-27 strike aircraft.
The JF-17’s success on the export market thus far reveals that there
is demand for a low-end, low-cost fighter aircraft that is build without
U.S. components—which are subject to Washington’s export controls. It’s
a part of the fighter market that has largely been ceded by Western
manufacturers who are focusing their efforts on extremely expensive
high-end combat aircraft, including the Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint
Strike Fighter, Eurofighter Typhoon and Dassault Rafale.
Even most current Russian offerings such as the Sukhoi Su-30SM and
Su-35S are too expensive for many nations. Meanwhile, the only
semi-affordable Western offering is the Saab Gripen—which has an
American-built engine, and therefore is subject to the same export
controls. That means for a nation like Sri Lanka—with its developing
economy that is subject to U.S. export restrictions—an aircraft like the
JF-17 is ideal.
The JF-17—especially
the early Block 1 model—is a basic low-cost fighter aircraft. A
Russian-made Klimov RD-93 engine producing roughly 19,000lbs of thrust
powers the aircraft, which gives it a max speed of Mach 1.6. The
airframe offers an eight g-force capability, which combined with the
PL-9C high off-boresight missile gives the aircraft decent capability
within visual range. It is equipped with the Chinese-built KLJ-7 radar,
which is compatible with the PL-12 active radar-guided missile and
affords the jet beyond-visual-range capability.
The improved Block 2 version of the jet has in-flight refueling capability and improved avionics. A thirdBlock 3 variant
is also under development, allegedly with a Chinese-built active
electronically scanned array radar, helmet-mounted cueing system, an
infrared search and track system and a host of new weapons. The improved
variant might also replace the Russian-made RD-93 with a Chinese Guizhou WS-13—assuming China manages to complete development of that engine.
The Chinese are developing the jet incrementally—upgrading the plane
over time with new avionics and weapons—which is a smart move. But the
JF-17 will never be a world-beating fighter. It may not even be a good
fighter—it’s designed for the low-end of the market. But it is designed
to be “good enough” for nations that need decent capability that won’t
break the bank. But the jet is in production after a relatively quick
development cycle, it is being built in significant numbers and is more
than competitive with its nearest potential adversary. In that respect,
the program is a success, especially if China can find more buyers. AVIC
anticipates a market for at least 300 JF-17 Thunder fighters. Dave Majumdar is the defense editor for The National Interest. You can follow him on Twitter: @davemajumdar. Image: Wikimedia Commons/Eric Salard.
The U.S. Navy’s Bold Plan to Unite F-35s With Refueling Drones
The Pentagon has ordered the
U.S. Navy to convert its Unmanned Carrier Launched Airborne Surveillance
and Strike (UCLASS) aircraft into a robotic ship-based aerial refueling
tanker. The new unmanned tanker program is the Navy’s solution to
extend the range of its carrier air wings to strike deep inside heavily
defended airspace—such as sites in Russia, China and elsewhere deep
within Eurasia.
While the Pentagon’s move quashes the dreams of many in Congress,
Washington think tanks and the defense industry who had hoped for a new
long-range unmanned carrier-based stealth bomber, the newCarrier Based Aerial Refueling System (CBARS) program had been foreshadowed for at least three years.
Indeed, in late 2013, the U.S. Navy’s director of air warfare,Rear Adm. Mike Manazir,
had explicitly told me that the UCLASS would be optimized to extend the
range of the stealthy Lockheed Martin F-35C Joint Strike Fighter.
“We’re going to put a refueling capability into them and they’ll have an
endurance package in them,” Manazir said. “They’ll be able to give away
something like 20,000 lbs. of gas and still stay up for
seven-and-a-half hours.”
At the time, Manazir had said that the UCLASS would be very large
aircraft—about the size of a Grumman F-14 Tomcat interceptor—that would
be able to fly for more than fourteen hours. “We’re talking about a
70,000- to 80,000-pound airplane,” Manazir had said. “We’re talking
[Grumman F-14] Tomcat size.”
As such, the basic premise behind the unmanned CBARS program is that
it would be able to extend the range of the carrier’s air wing. Right
now, the Navy’s carrier air wings have to rely on the U.S. Air Force’s
“big wing” tankers like the KC-135 or KC-10. Boeing F/A-18E/F Super
Hornets can also be used as “buddy refuelers” when loaded up in a
so-called “five wet” configuration—however, that eats up the jet’s
airframe life quickly. The CBARS would free the Super Hornets up for
their strike fighter role while reducing the air wing’s dependence on
Air Force assets.
While the Pentagon has not explicitly come out and said it,
the CBARS—or a variant of that airframe—might also be used as a missile
caddy to help defend the carrier under theNaval Integrated Fire Control–Counter Air (NIFC-CA) construct similar to thePentagon’s arsenal plane.
Indeed, Manazir had suggested that the UCLASS could be used as a flying
missile magazine for the Northrop Grumman E-2D Hawkeye or a F-35C
flight leader. “Maybe we put a whole bunch of AMRAAMs (Advanced
Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile) on it and that thing is the truck,”
Manazir said. “So this unmanned truck goes downtown with—as far as it
can go—with a decision-maker.”
As such, it might also be used to haul long-range networked weapons
within the NIFC-CA construct alongside the F/A-18E/F and EA-18G Growler.Under Manazir’s plan,
the stealthy F-35C—whose range would be extended by the
CBARS/UCLASS—would fly deep inside enemy territory and act as a flying
sensor node. It would use its sensors to identify targets, rely that
data back to the shooters (F/A-18E/Fs, EA-18Gs, surface warships and
submarines), and then provide terminal-weapons guidance and
battle-damage assessments using an advanced tactical datalink. “Let’s
say we’re in an anti-access environment and we’re going to go deep, we
would launch all the airplanes off, get them all set, and we would push
the F-35C way inside,”Manazir had said.
“He would go in there using his X-band stealth technology, and go in
there and he would get radar contacts and surface contacts and would ID
them for us.”
Effectively, Manazir described in detail back in 2013 what is
transpiring in the Navy’s plans now. No one should have been surprised
that the UCLASS has morphed into a tanker, or that the Pentagon is
buying more F-35Cs or F/A-18s—Manazir spelled out the plan more than two
years ago in detail. Dave Majumdar is the defense editor for the National Interest. You can follow him on Twitter: @davemajumdar. Image: Flickr/U.S. Navy.
The United States has poured
ten of billions of dollars into developing fifth-generation stealth
fighters such as the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor and F-35 Joint Strike
Fighter. However, relatively simple signal processing enhancements,
combined with a missile with a large warhead and its own terminal
guidance system, could potentially allow low-frequency radars and such
weapons systems to target and fire on the latest generation U.S. aircraft.
It is a well-known fact within Pentagon and industry circles that low-frequency radars operating in the VHF and UHF bands can detect and track low-observable aircraft.
It has generally been held that such radars can’t guide a missile onto a
target—i.e. generate a “weapons quality” track. But that is not exactly
correct—there are ways to get around the problem according to some
experts.
Traditionally, guiding weapons with low frequency radars has been
limited by two factors. One factor is the width of the radar beam, while
the second is the width of the radar pulse—but both limitations can be
overcome with signal processing.
The width of the beam is directly related to the design of the
antenna—which is necessarily large because of the low frequencies
involved. Early low-frequency radars like the Soviet-built P-14 Tall
King VHF-band radars was enormous in size and used a semi-parabolic
shape to limit the width of the beam. Later radars like the P-18 Spoon
Rest used a Yagi-Uda array—which were lighter and somewhat smaller. But
these early low frequency radars had some serious limitations in
determining the range and the precise direction of a contact.
Furthermore, they could not determine altitude because the radar beams
produced by these systems are several degrees wide in azimuth and tens
of degrees wide in elevation.
Another traditional limitation of VHF and UHF-band radars is that
their pulse width is long and they have a low pulse repetition frequency
[PRF]—which means such systems are poor at accurately determining
range. As Mike Pietrucha, a former Air Force an electronic warfare
officer who flew on the McDonnell Douglas F-4G Wild Weasel and Boeing
F-15E Strike Eagle once described to me, a pulse width of twenty
microseconds yields a pulse that is roughly 19,600 ft long—range
resolution is half the length of that pulse. That means that range
can’t be determined accurately within 10,000 feet. Furthermore, two
targets near one another can’t be distinguished as separate contacts.
Signal processing partially solved the range resolution problem as
early as in the 1970s. The key is a process called frequency modulation
on pulse, which is used to compress a radar pulse. The advantage of
using pulse compression is that with a twenty-microsecond pulse, the
range resolution is reduced to about 180 feet or so. There are also
several other techniques that can be used to compress a radar pulse such
as phase shift keying. Indeed, according to Pietrucha, the technology
for pulse compression is decades old and was taught to Air Force
electronic warfare officers during the 1980s. The computer processing
power required for this is negligible by current standards, Pietrucha
said.
Engineers solved the problem of directional or azimuth
resolution by using phased array radar designs, which dispensed with the
need for a parabolic array. Unlike older mechanically scanned arrays,
phased array radars steer their radar beams electronically. Such radars
can generate multiple beams and can shape those beams for width, sweep
rate and other characteristics. The necessary computing power to
accomplish that task was available in the late 1970s for what eventually
became the Navy’s Aegis combat system found on the Ticonderoga-class
cruisers and Arleigh Burke-class destroyers. An active electronically
scanned array is better still, being even more precise.
With a missile warhead large enough, the range resolution does not
have to be precise. For example, the now antiquated S-75 Dvina—known in
NATO parlance as the SA-2 Guideline—has a 440-pound warhead with a
lethal radius of more than 100 feet. Thus, a notional twenty-microsecond
compressed pulse with a range resolution of 150 feet should have the
range resolution to get the warhead close enough—according to
Pietrucha’s theory.
The directional and elevation resolution would have to be similar
with an angular resolution of roughly 0.3 degrees for a target at thirty
nautical miles because the launching radar is the only system guiding
the SA-2. For example, a missile equipped with its own sensor—perhaps an
infrared sensor with a scan volume of a cubic kilometer—would be an
even more dangerous foe against an F-22 or F-35. Dave Majumdar is the defense editor for the National Interest. You can follow him on Twitter: @davemajumdar. Image: Lockheed Martin.
http://nextbigfuture.com/
Russia has engine tests for PAK-DA strategic stealth bomber and see delays in first flight to 2021
“The maiden flight should be performed in 2019. State tests and supplies
will be completed in 2023,” Russian Air Force chief Col. Gen. Bondarev
told RIA Novosti in May 2014. Under the previous plan, the bomber had
been expected to become operational in 2025. However, that timeline was
always optimistic. With the first flight delayed, the rest of the
PAK-DA’s schedule is likely to shift to as well—with operational testing
and operational capability being delayed by several years.
The PAK-DA is expected to be a subsonic flying-wing aircraft that is
roughly analogous to the Northrop Grumman B-2 Spirit and the U.S. Air
Force’s forthcoming Long Range Strike-Bomber. Flying wings lend
themselves well to low observable characteristics—particularly against
low frequency radars operating in the UHF and VHF bands—but
manufacturing could still be an issue. The PAK-DA will likely feature
advanced avionics—including a new radar, communications suite and
electronic warfare systems. Meanwhile, the PAK-DA’s engines, which are
being developed by the Kuznetsov design bureau, are an advanced
derivative of the Tu-160’s NK-32 turbofans.
The PAK-DA will not be a small aircraft. It is expected to have a
maximum gross take-off weight of about 250,000lbs—about the size of a
Boeing 757 airliner.
By 2014, the project reached development stages: the developers
identified and formed the tactical and technical data of the PAK DA,
including an approximate weight of 125 tons (with a combat load of 30
tons), a range of 12,500 km, and subsonic flight.
SOURCES - Russia and India Report, Sputnik News, National Interest, Wikipedia
Cognitive EW, today in its infancy, may one day help justify the Joint Strike Fighter’s enormous cost.
While the specifics of the jet’s electronic warfare, or EW,
package remain opaque, scientists, program watchers and military
leaders close to the program say it will be key to the jet’s evolution
and its survival against the future’s most advanced airplane-killing
technology. In short, cognitive EW is the most important feature on the world’s most sophisticated warplane.
“There are small elements of cognitive EW right now on the F-35, but what we are really looking toward is the future,” Lee Venturino, president and CEO
of First Principles, a company that is analyzing the F-35 for the
Pentagon, said at a recent Association of Old Crows event in Washington,
D.C.“Think of it as a stair-stepper approach. The first step is probably along the ESM [electronic support measures] side. How do I just identify the signals I’ve never seen before?”
To understand what cognitive warfare is, you have to know what it isn’t. EW
makes use of the invisible waves of energy that propagate through free
space from the movement of electrons, the electromagnetic spectrum.
Conventional radar systems generally use fixed waveforms, making them
easy to spot, learn about, and develop tactics against. But newer
digitally programmable radars can generate never-before-seen waveforms,
making them harder to defeat.
A concern that U.S.EW
was falling behind the challenges of today’s world prompted a 2013
Defense Science Board study that recommended that the military develop
agile and adaptive electronic warfare systems that could detect and
counter tricky new sensors.
“In the past, what would happen is you’d send out your EA-18,” the military’s top-of-the-line EW
aircraft, Deputy Defense Secretary Bob Work said last month in an event
at the Center for New American Security. “It would find a new waveform.
There was no way for us to do anything about it. The pilot would come
back, they would talk about it, they’d replicate it, they’d emulate it.
It would go into the ‘gonculator,’
goncu-goncu-goncu-gonculatoring, and then you would have something, and
then maybe some time down the road, you would have a response.”
That process is far too slow to be effective against digitally
programmable radars. “The software [to defeat new waveforms] may take on
the order of months or years, but the effectiveness needs to programed
within hours or seconds. If it’s an interaction with a radar and a
jammer, for example, sometime it’s a microsecond,” said Robert Stein,
who co-chaired the Defense Science Board study.
Read “interaction” in that context to mean the critical moment when
an adversary, perhaps a single lowly radar operator, detects a U.S.
military aircraft on a covert operation. That moment of detection is
the sort of world-changing event that happens, literally, in the blink
of an eye.
Just before the study came out, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or DARPA, established the Adaptive Radar Countermeasures program to “enable U.S. airborne EW
systems to automatically generate effective countermeasures against
new, unknown and adaptive radars in real-time in the field.”
The goal: EW software that can perceive new
waveforms and attacks as quickly and as clearly as a living being can
hear leaves rustle or see a predator crouching in the distance, then
respond creatively to the threat: can I outrun that? Can I fight it?
Should I do anything at all? It’s a problem of artificial intelligence:
creating a living intelligence in code.
Applying the Brain Algorithm to EW Warfare
There could be no cognitive electromagnetic warfare without cognitive
radar, a concept fathered by electronics researcher Simon Haykin in his
prescient 2006 paper “Cognitive Radar: A Way Of the Future.”
Cognition is an act we attribute to living things, defined in the
Oxford Dictionary as “knowing, perceiving, or conceiving as an act.”
Haykin suggests that echo-location, which allows bats with nut-sized
brains to detect, identify, and engage targets, is a type of cognition
built on deep information processing. “How then does the bat perform all
these remarkable tasks? The answer to this fundamental question lies in
the fact that soon after birth, the bat uses its innate hard-wired
brain to build up rules of behavior through what we usually refer to as
experience, hence the remarkable ability of the bat for echo-location.”
Haykin proposed that it’s becoming feasible to build a bat-like
computer, thanks to radars and phased-array antennas that allow rapid
scanning of waveforms and ever-shrinking, ever-more powerful
computers.
At the root of this cognitive processing is Bayes’s theorem:
P (A | X) = p ( X | A ) p ( A )
p ( X )
P in the theorem means probability. A is the answer and X is a
condition that will influence the probability. Thomas Bayes published
the theorem in 1764, but it’s only in recent decades that it’s gained
real popularity among statisticians, computer scientists, and machine
learning experts. Bayesian algorithms don’t necessarily provide the most
accurate answer the first time you use it. But as new information and
data become available, you run the formula over and over again to get
answers in which you can have more and more confidence.
The advent of the Network Age, with its massive amounts of
continually streaming data, has made Bayesian analysis more useful than
some more traditional types of statistical analysis, especially for
helping machines to learn. The human brain, too, learns both imperfectly
but continually on the basis of streaming stimuli, as opposed to
outputting a single value after crunching a big package of information.
Applied to radar, Haykin imagined a Bayesian algorithm working like this:
“For a given search area, radar returns are collected over a certain
period of time. 2) For each range-azimuth resolution cell in the search
space, the probability that the cell contains a target is computed. 3)
With the evolution of target probability distribution resulting from the
recursive computation of step 2 over time, target tracks are detected,
and corresponding hard decisions on possible targets are
subsequently made.”
Haykin’s paper helped spark the Defense Department’s interest in cognitive EW and machine learning. BAE
Systems and Raytheon are among the defense contractors that have
emerged as key players. Today, Bayesian statistical methods are at the
core of virtually every effort to apply machine learning to EW.
“I would say, generally, Bayesian algorithms are a core to machine
learning and we certainly apply them across a wide range of domains that
we operate in,” said Josh Niedzwiecki, who directs BAE’s sensor processing and exploitation group. BAE provides the F-35’s EW package.
Niedzwiecki’s 200-person group includes PhDs from top universities
with backgrounds in machine learning, physics, statistical signal
processing, and computational neuroscience among other fields, all
working to apply machine learning algorithms to radar energy, video
image processing, acoustic signal processing, and more. “They understand
how the brain works, how we learn,” Niedzwiecki says of the group.
Bayesian statistical methods are the foundation of all of that.
But machine learning algorithms can’t learn without data, lots of it.
While Facebook can access records from a billion-plus users, getting
data from adversaries about the unique waveforms that they’re
experimenting with is a more challenging task. The military can’t just
ask China to opt-in to an information-sharing agreement.
Generally, the best information is gathered on real-world missions,
but this has its limitations. “There are certain tactical scenarios
where that becomes very difficult because my mission might preclude me
from hanging around for very long. I might be in a platform or in a
mission scenario where I have to get in and get out,” says Niedzwiecki.
“The way you take advantage of that is to learn over time. So I’m
recording this data, I’m building my model, and given the data that I’m
seeing and the hypothesis I’m testing during that mission, I’m seeing
something about how to change the model to be more accurate next time. I
want to take that data and use that for the current mission and the
next mission. Those are some of the things that are starting to be
thought about.”
Adversary EW is advancing far faster than U.S. military acquisition programs can keep up. That’s why the Pentagon wants cognitive systems that can evolve on their own.
For the United States, EW dominance will be
a matter not just of designing more exquisite sensors or writing
smarter algorithms. It will require the disciplined execution of data
collection processes — something that has to happen military-wide every
time a radar operator encounters a new waveform, but doesn’t, the
Defense Science Board study found. “In those places where we do have
recorders, operators tend to turn them off. Because sometimes they
create issues with the equipment with which they’re embedded,” said
Stein. But, he continued, “last night, in some conflict, some place,
unexpected things happened. What are we going to do about it? We better
have the tapes, the digits, that recorded what went on last night. Let’s
peel it apart. Let’s see why what happened, happened. We tend not to do
that.”
When F-35 pilots have to slip past the programmable radars of the
future, their success is going to depend on a lot of data collection
that happens off the plane.
The EW Arms Race
For a peek at the future of plane-killing technology that the F-35
may go up against, look at the Nebo-M, Russia’s premiere programmable
radar system. The Nebo-M consists of three radars on separate trucks: a VHF that does the wide scanning and higher frequency UHF
and X-Band that do the more precise triangulation. The system fuses the
data from these three data streams to draw a bead on even
stealthy aircraft.
“The radar is designed to automatically detect and track airborne
targets such as ballistic missiles, stealth aircraft, or drones, as well
as hypersonic targets. In the circular scan mode the complex is able to
track up to 200 aerodynamic targets at a distance and at altitudes of
up to 600 kilometers. In sector scan mode, Nebo-M can track to 20
ballistic targets at ranges of up to 1,800 kilometers and at an altitude
of up to 1,200 kilometers,” Russian-State media outlet RTclaimed
back in February. The Russian military planners in October to extend
radar coverage across the entirety of Russia by 2020, according to RT.
If the United States, Russia, or China were ever stumble into a hot
war, the F-35 and air defense systems like the Nebo-M would likely face
off against one another. It’s yet more indication that EW, like cyber, is emerging as the next great arms race. But unlike previous arms competitions, adversary EW is advancing far faster than U.S.
military acquisition programs can keep up. That explains, in part, why
the Pentagon is interested in cognitive systems that can adapt and
evolve on their own.
“Right now, we know that these machines are going to be able, through
learning machines … to figure out how to take care of that waveform in
the mission while it’s happening,” Work said at CNAS. The subject of his talk was the Third Offset Strategy, the Pentagon’s $13 billion moonshot program to re-secure its technological advantage. The fact that cognitive EW made its way into the speech says a lot about its importance to the Pentagon’s plans.
The F-35 is supposed to reach initial operating capability, or IOC, with the Air Force next year. It may be deployed soon after. “When you’re at CENTCOM,
you don’t request a specific jet, you request the capability,” Maj.
Gen. Jeffrey Harrigian, director of the Air Force’s F-35 Integration
Office, said at the Air Force Association’s Air and Space Conference, as reported by Air Force Times. “When we declare IOC, the F-35 will be on the list of capabilities that will be available.” That means the jet could go to war against ISIS or the Taliban by this time next year.
The Joint Strike Fighter program, on track to cost $400 billion according to an April 2015 Government Accountability Office report,
may never quite justify its enormous price tag. But if the F-35 can
truly learn and adapt to its electromagnetic environment, evolving in
lifelike response to changing circumstances, it could live up to some of
the many promises that its backers have made on its behalf, waging war
in the EW space as intelligently as living soldiers fight on the ground.
“It’s certainly architected to do that,” said Stein. “The skeletal
framework is there to be able to do that … I’ll let you know five years
from now if it really was exploited.”
http://www.northropgrumman.com/
AN/ALQ-218 RWR/ESM/ELINT Sensor System
Northrop
Grumman's AN/ALQ-218 Radar Warning Receiver / Electronic Support
Measures / Electronic Intelligence (RWR/ESM/ELINT) Sensor System is the
U.S. Navy's choice for airborne situational awareness and signal
intelligence gathering.
A passive, high performance SIGINT
sensor system, the AN/ALQ-218 protects the warfighter by detecting,
identifying, locating and analyzing sources of radio frequency (RF)
emission.
The AN/ALQ-218 family is currently in production and installed on both the EA-18G
and P-8A Poseidon ASW/ASUW aircraft. New spiral initiatives are
positioning the AN/ALQ-218 as the ESM system of choice for future
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) and subsurface applications.
The
AN/ALQ-218 is the world's only receiver system proven to provide high
Probability of Intercept (POI) under "Look-Through" operations, enabling
DF & Geolocation, parameter measurement and Intentional Modulation
on Pulse (IMOP) detection while simultaneously supporting enemy radar
threat jamming. The AN/ALQ-218 also supports Specific Emitter
Identification (SEI) characterization.
The AN/ALQ-218 utilizes a
unique combination of short and long baseline interferometer techniques
along with a patented passive ranging algorithm to provide precision
Geolocation of all ground-based emitters.
ELINT signal analysis
software is easily provided via the NGC PASS (Parameterizer &
Analysis Software System) tool which receives signal data from analog or
digital sources and provides measurement tools for analysis in either
pre-detected or Pulse Descriptive Word (PDW) domain.
AN/ALQ-218 system features:
Broad Radio Frequency Range: Bands 0, 1, 2 and band 3
Signal Types: Radar (Pulsed & CW) with optional COMMs support
High Sensitivity and Dynamic Range
Dynamic Tuning in sparse signal environment (Jamming)
Passive Precision Geolocation expandable to targeting accuracies
Specific Emitter Identification (to USG MISPE standards)
Commercial Interference Mitigation (in bands 0 & 1)
Enhanced Fine Frequency Measurement supporting Jamming
Latest generation Frequency Domain Digital Channelized Receiver
TRL 9 Technology (Hardware and Software)
Beam Battles: The Return of Great Power Electronic Warfare
The Battle of the Beams
was a period during World War II concerning German attempts to harness
radio navigation for night bombing in the UK and the resulting British
countermeasures. The British eventually managed to jam or distort all
three iterations of German radio signals, making it more difficult for
the bombers to hit their targets. That episode dramatically illustrates
the ephemeral nature of advantages in electronic warfare, especially
when operating against an agile and sophisticated foe.
Since the end of the Cold War and the onset of the War on Terror, the
principal targets of Western military power have been relatively
low-tech groups in the Middle East. Electronic warfare platforms like
the U.S. Navy’s EA-6B Prowler were used to jam enemy communications
during operations, and the relatively low tech of the enemy limited
their ability to counter. But the constant threat to ground troops from
improvised explosive devices (IEDs) led to the development of
counter-IED jamming systems, and a new “invisible war”
emerged. As quickly as vehicle-mounted jammers could be reprogrammed,
insurgents made use of a variety of commercial technologies—cell-phones,
key-fobs, door remotes—to adapt.
The focus of electronic warfare understandably changed to deal with
the threat of the day, but a focus on counter-IED systems has had
consequences for wider development. For example, the ALQ-99 jamming pod
used on the Prowler, and on the new EA-18G Growler, was first used as far back as the Vietnam War and its successor is still years away.
A lack of new developments in electronic warfare since the end of the Cold War has led to a closing of the technological gap
between the United States (and allies such as Australia), and potential
adversaries such as Russia or China. This trend has been especially
clear since Russian EW capabilities were used in Eastern Ukraine. The
Russian land-based Krasukha-4 jamming system proved too much for the Ukrainians to handle, and was described by Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, commander of U.S. Army units in Europe, as “eye-watering” in sophistication.
Last year, Russia deployed the Krasukha-4 to Syria in support of its operations there, along with its S-400 radar-guided missile
system. The S-400 uses AESA (active electronically scanned array) radar
to track multiple aerial targets out to 600km, and can fire supersonic
missiles up to 400km. Russia is exporting the S-400 to China and India, and its predecessor platform, the S-300, is operated by several countries including China and Iran.
Because of this proliferation, any conflict with Russia, China or even
Iran is likely to involve a substantial electronic warfare component.
The Australian Defence Force will need new and advanced tactical EW
capabilities to contribute in the event of conflict with an adversary
that’s technologically capable. There are systems “on the way,” but
there are a few things that strategists and observers should be aware of
when considering the future of Australia’s EW capability.
First, the Australian government announced in 2013 that it would purchase twelve new-build Growler aircraft from the United States to complement the twenty-four F/A-18F Super Hornets already in service. Former RAAF Air Marshal Geoff Brown said that the Growler “will have the biggest strategic effect on the ADF since the F-111 in the 1970s.” They’ll still operate the obsolescent ALQ-99 jammer pods, but the ADF will likely seek to acquire the U.S. Navy’s Next-Gen Jammer (NGJ) when it arrives sometime after 2021. Essentially, the new jammer is “a move from dumb jamming to smart jamming,” and it’s being designed with Growler compatibility as a priority. The RAAF Growler will also field the ALQ-218 electronic intelligence (ELINT) system, used to detect and analyse signals in the operating environment.
Second, the F-35 Lightning-II will have an exceptional AESA digital
radar system that will also be a capable electronic warfare system. It
will be able to function as a jammer
and generate false targets. It’s not clear if the F-35’s EW capability
will be as substantial as the NGJ’s, since the F-35 radar is “optimized to be a targeting radar,” and is limited to X-band frequencies. However, the F-35 development program will continue to evolve a “cognitive EW” capability, which will allow the F-35 to adapt its electronic detection and emissions with increasing agility.
Third, electronic warfare needn’t be restricted to electronic
attack or ELINT capabilities. In fact, maintaining a technological edge
in those capabilities is the bare minimum that the U.S. Armed Forces and
the ADF should be doing. The outcomes of conflicts of the future are
being determined in the research labs of today. Electromagnetic spectrum
capabilities include a growing role for microwave technology, such as high-power microwave weapons that can disrupt or even destroy the electronics of enemy vehicles and drones. Also of note are developments in non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse weapons and offensive lasers.
Australia is well positioned to reap the capability benefits of U.S.
electronic warfare development, which has the added benefit of improving
interoperability, but the ADF should investigate opportunities to
contribute to future research in the field. The Defence Science and
Technology Group already employs a team of world-class radar specialists
to work on the Jindalee Operational Radar Network.
Finally, the U.S. Navy will continue to bear the brunt of testing
Australian platforms’ networking capabilities, as they are the primary
operators of the Super Hornet and Growler, as well as the P-8 Poseidon
and MQ-4C Triton platforms which Australia is planning to acquire. The
ADF should also seek to confirm the F-35 and NGJ’s networking
compatibility with the RAAF’s E-7A Wedgetail and Gulfstream 550, and the RAN’s Air Warfare Destroyer
and future frigates and submarines. The ADF will need to align its
structure and EW doctrine to capitalize on the capability provided by
networked EW and signals intelligence collection systems.
In the event of conflict, Australia should be able to employ modern
electronic warfare platforms, either independently or in concert with
allies. Otherwise we could end up on the wrong side of the next Battle
of the Beams. James Mugg is a researcher at ASPI. This article first appeared in the Strategist. Image: Wikimedia Commons/U.S. Navy.
Lethal Duo: America's New Two-Fighter Plan to Take on Russia
The United States will need
forces that are able to defeat to Russia’s anti-access/area-denial
(A2/AD) capabilities in the event of a war in Europe. Once those Russian
A2/AD capabilities have been breached, U.S. forces would have to move
quickly to reinforce allied defenses in Europe as they move eastward.
“We need to be able to rapidly reinforce—that sounds very
straightforward. It is not,” U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove,
commander of U.S. European Command, told theSenate Armed Services Committee on March 1.
“Remember Russia has created a very dense pattern of
A2/AD—access/area-denial. We need to be investing in those capabilities
and capacities that allow us to enter into an A2/AD environment and be
able to reinforce.”
Those capabilities would include the stealthy duo of the Lockheed
Martin F-22 Raptor and the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter—which are better
able to tackle modern Russian-built advanced integrated air defense
systems like the S-300 and S-400. Indeed, the U.S. Air Force has started
to rotationally deploy the F-22 to Europe while F-35s will be
permanently based in England starting in 2021.
“I would love to have both the F-22 and the F-35 in Europe. They are
that complementary. But we don’t have no plans nor have we discussed
anything about forward basing any F-22s because we do it via a
rotational basis,” Gen. Frank Gorenc,commander of U.S. Air Forces in Europe (USAFE) told Defense News on February 26.
Eventually, the B-21—the Long Range Strike Bomber
(LRS-B)—might also play a role, but the new warplane will act in a
capacity akin to a B-2 Spirit. “I think in the end it will be what the
B-2 delivers, only better. More reliable. And the capability of that
aircraft obviously with its stealth characteristics opens up a lot of
targeting capability. To the extent that they can, I wouldn’t mind
seeing some of the improvements in whatever you can do to contribute to
the ISR mission,” Gorenc told Defense News. “There are not a lot of
details on it to be perfectly honest. But that is what I am expecting
for it. I need it to be more persistent. I need it to be more long
range. I need it to be mission capable at a very high rate.”
Meanwhile, Breedlove reiterated that Russia continues to ramp-up its
undersea activity. As during the Cold War, when NATO worried about
Europe being overrun at the same time Soviet naval forces cut the
lifeline to the Americas, the renewed Russian submarine activity raises
the specter of U.S. forces being cut off from reinforcements in the
event of war. “We are challenged to be able to watch all this activity,”
Breedlove said. “And the Russians understand the utility of those
submarines and have invested heavily in those submarines and it does
challenge our abilities.” Dave Majumdar is the new Defense Editor for the National Interest. You can follow him on Twitter: @DaveMajumdar. Image: Lockheed Martin.
Even before its first
fifth-generation stealth fighter completes development, Russia has
embarked on developing sixth and even seventh-generation follow-ons to
the Sukhoi T-50 PAK-FA. Indeed, Sukhoi has already presented initial concepts for a new sixth-generation fighter to the Russian government.
"They have really come up with the designs for the creation of the
sixth-generation fighter,” Russian deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin
told the Moscow-based TASS News agency
on Wednesday. “I’m referring also to new design concepts briefly
presented by the Sukhoi design bureau and by the general designer
appointed for all aircraft systems and armaments.”
Meanwhile, most of Russia’s aircraft development efforts are focused
on testing the PAK-FA fifth-generation fighter. Like the Pentagon, the
Russian military plans decades ahead. In many ways, the Russian
sixth-generation concept is akin to the U.S. Air Force’s F-X Next Generation Air Dominance effort to replace the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor or the U.S. Navy’s F/A-XX program.
Like the United States, Russia too is exploring concepts like manned-unmanned teaming.
“It [the plane] will be modified in both versions,” Col. Gen. Viktor
Bondarev, commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces told TASS. However,
there are very few additional details available about the new Russian
effort.
Moscow has embarked on an ambitious rearmament plan—which includes
numerous new developmental efforts. Among those are new tanks, ships,
submarines and several new aircraft including a new stealth bomber.
However, how the Kremlin expects to pay for those developments is an
open question given the state of Russia’s economy and the persistent low
price of oil on the global market.
Nonetheless, Russia is not just aiming to develop a follow-on
to the PAK-FA, Moscow is looking far beyond the current horizon. “"If we
stop, we will stop forever,” Bondarev said. “Therefore, the work is
going on—on the sixth and perhaps the seventh (generation) fighters.”
Neither Bodarev nor Rogozin provided a timeline, but according to
Russian state-owned media, work on the program will start in the next
few years. Dave Majumdar is the new Defense Editor for the National Interest. You can follow him on Twitter: @DaveMajumdar. Image: Wikimedia Commons/Toshiro Aoki (www.jp-spotters.com)
Even before its first
fifth-generation stealth fighter completes development, Russia has
embarked on developing sixth and even seventh-generation follow-ons to
the Sukhoi T-50 PAK-FA. Indeed, Sukhoi has already presented initial concepts for a new sixth-generation fighter to the Russian government.
"They have really come up with the designs for the creation of the
sixth-generation fighter,” Russian deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin
told the Moscow-based TASS News agency
on Wednesday. “I’m referring also to new design concepts briefly
presented by the Sukhoi design bureau and by the general designer
appointed for all aircraft systems and armaments.”
Meanwhile, most of Russia’s aircraft development efforts are focused
on testing the PAK-FA fifth-generation fighter. Like the Pentagon, the
Russian military plans decades ahead. In many ways, the Russian
sixth-generation concept is akin to the U.S. Air Force’s F-X Next Generation Air Dominance effort to replace the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor or the U.S. Navy’s F/A-XX program.
Like the United States, Russia too is exploring concepts like manned-unmanned teaming.
“It [the plane] will be modified in both versions,” Col. Gen. Viktor
Bondarev, commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces told TASS. However,
there are very few additional details available about the new Russian
effort.
Moscow has embarked on an ambitious rearmament plan—which includes
numerous new developmental efforts. Among those are new tanks, ships,
submarines and several new aircraft including a new stealth bomber.
However, how the Kremlin expects to pay for those developments is an
open question given the state of Russia’s economy and the persistent low
price of oil on the global market.
Nonetheless, Russia is not just aiming to develop a follow-on
to the PAK-FA, Moscow is looking far beyond the current horizon. “"If we
stop, we will stop forever,” Bondarev said. “Therefore, the work is
going on—on the sixth and perhaps the seventh (generation) fighters.”
Neither Bodarev nor Rogozin provided a timeline, but according to
Russian state-owned media, work on the program will start in the next
few years. Dave Majumdar is the new Defense Editor for the National Interest. You can follow him on Twitter: @DaveMajumdar. Image: Wikimedia Commons/Toshiro Aoki (www.jp-spotters.com)
Despite having a 5th-generation jet 'in name only,' Russia is pushing ahead for a 6th-generation plane
By Jeremy Bender
3 hours ago
(Wikipedia Commons) A prototype of Russia's fifth-generation jet, the PAK FA. In spite of criticisms and concerns that Russia's fifth-generation is actually fifth-generation "in name only," the Kremlin is pushing ahead with plans for its sixth-generation jet.
Russian Deputy Prime
Minister Dmitry Rogozin said on Wednesday that Sukhoi has delivered
plans for its new sixth-generation fighter, TASS News reports.
"I’m referring also to new
design concepts briefly presented by the Sukhoi design bureau and by the
general designer appointed for all aircraft systems and armaments,"
Rogozin told reporters, according to TASS.
"They have really come up with the designs for the creation of the sixth-generation fighter."
And, as TASS reports, Commander
of the Russian Aerospace Forces Viktor Bondarev told reporters on
Wednesday that the potential sixth-generation jet will be produced in
both manned and unmanned versions. Meaning, essentially, that the new
jet will be planned to be able to function in some conditions as a drone aircraft.
However,
beyond that hint, the Kremlin delivered few other details about its new
potential jet. The plans for the new jet comes as Russia is continuing
to test its fifth-generation PAK FA fighter. Although, as the National
Interest notes, it is not uncommon for militaries to begin testing and designing the next generation of aircraft decades in advance.
Currently, Russia's PAK FA is expected to enter into service sometime in the next six years. However, the aircraft has been called
fifth-generation "in name only" due to a host of complaints affecting
the aircraft's radar cross signature, its avionics, and its engines.
A Sukhoi T-50 flies during a display at the opening of the 2011 MAKS
International Aviation and Space Salon at Zhukovsky airport outside
Moscow. Photo: REUTERS/Sergei Karpukhin
Russian
military designers presented the first blueprints for a
sixth-generation fighter jet Wednesday that they say will be ready for
service around 2025, even though the Kremlin’s PAK FA fifth-generation
fighter jet is not yet in service. Moscow is being pushed into action by
the United States, which has been operating the F-22 Raptor stealth
fighter jet for more than 10 years and began making plans for its own
sixth-generation fighter jet in 2012.
"They have really come up
with the designs for the creation of the sixth-generation fighter,"
Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin told reporters after a meeting on
military aviation development, according
to Tass, a Russian state news agency. "I’m referring to new design
concepts briefly presented by the Sukhoi design bureau and by the
general designer appointed for all aircraft systems and armaments.”
The
sixth-generation aircraft is expected to incorporate many of the same
weapons programs and advanced stealth as it predecessor, but is likely
to have manned and unmanned versions, said a Russian commander who also spoke with Tass.
The
race for air superiority had heated up in recent years, since Moscow
began a $700 billion, 10-year defense modernization program designed at
achieving parity with the U.S. military. While it’s clear that Moscow is
unable to spend as much as Washington on defense, setting aside $52
billion in 2016 compared with $575 billion by the U.S., it has generally
been able to push out weapons, tanks, ships and submarines that compare
favorably with American versions.
However, given the extreme
costs and expertise involved with advanced jet fighters, Russia has
always lagged behind. For example, Russia could never match the near $1
trillion costs involved in the development of the U.S. military’s F-35
multirole fighter. Its fifth-generation jet fighter, also known as the
T-50, has experienced funding and operational issues that experts say will keep it far behind the F-22 and the F-35.
The T-50 is expected to come into service in the next year or two, with manufacture up to speed by 2020. However, disagreements
with its partner country India over work and cost share, aircraft
technology, as well as the number of aircraft to be ordered, could set
the warplane back years. The two countries signed an agreement in 2010
to invest $6 billion each.
New Northrop bomber to be designated B-21 -U.S. Air Force
By Andrea Shalal
February 26, 2016 3:16 PM
An artist rendering shows the first image of a new Northrop Grumman
Corp long-range bomber B21 in this …
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Air Force Secretary
Deborah James on Friday unveiled the first image of a new Northrop
Grumman Corp long-range bomber and said it would be designated the B-21,
as losing bidder Boeing Co said it would forego further challenges.
James
revealed the first artist's rendering of the secret bomber, an angular
flying wing, at the Air Force Association's annual Air Warfare
Symposium. She said the name of the new warplane would be chosen in a
contest among service members.
The program has been shrouded in
secrecy since its inception for fear of revealing military secrets to
potential enemies, and to avoid giving the losing bidders any details
before their formal protest was rejected last week.
Northrop won a
contract worth an estimated $80 billion in October to develop and build
100 new bombers, but work on the plane was delayed for months while
federal auditors reviewed a protest by Boeing and its key supplier,
Lockheed Martin Corp.
Boeing said on Friday it would skip any
further protests with the U.S. Government Accountability Office or in
the federal courts. The Air Force, under pressure from lawmakers and
retired Air Force officers, has promised to release more information
about the new plane in March.
Although the program has now survived the legal protest process, it still faces hurdles in Congress.
Senate
Armed Services Committee Chairman John McCain said on Thursday he would
block the Air Force's use of a cost-plus type of contract for the
long-range bomber since it would hold the government responsible for
cost overruns.
The Air Force says that only the engineering and
development phase of the program, valued at $21.4 billion, is structured
as a cost-plus contract with incentive fees.
Production of the
first five sets of new bombers, usually the most expensive planes in a
new class of aircraft, would be structured with a firm, fixed price, the
service said.
Analysts say
the program will be worth around $80 billion in total, providing a boon
to Northrop and its key suppliers, but the Air Force has said only that
it expects to pay $511 million per plane in 2010 dollars.
John
Michael Loh, a retired four-star U.S. Air Force general, has urged the
Air Force to name Northrop's suppliers to shore up support in Congress,
and avoid a rerun of the B-2 bomber program, which was scaled back from
132 planes to just 21, which drove the price of each plane sharply
higher.
(Editing by Bernadette Baum and Matthew Lewis)
Revealed: Pentagon’s Plan to Defeat Russian and Chinese Radar With A.I.
The Pentagon’s Defense
Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is working on a new generation
of electronic warfare systems that are based on artificial intelligence
(AI). If the program were to prove a success, the new A.I.-driven
systems would provide the United States military a way to counter
evermore-capable Russian and Chinese radars.
“One of our programs at DARPA is taking a whole new approach to this
problem, this is an effort we refer to as cognitive electronic warfare,”
DARPA director, Dr. Arati Prabhakar, told the House Armed Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities on February
24. “We’re using artificial intelligence to learn in real-time what the
adversaries’ radar is doing and then on-the-fly create a new jamming
profile. That whole process of sensing, learning and adapting is going
on continually.”
Current generation aircraft—including the stealthy Lockheed Martin
F-22 and F-35—have a preprogrammed databank of enemy radar signals and
jamming profiles stored in a threat library. But if those warplanes
encounter a signal that has not previously been encountered, the system
registers the threat as unknown—which means the aircraft is vulnerable
to that threat.
“Today, when out aircraft go out on their missions, they’re loaded up
with a set of jamming profiles—these are specific frequencies and
waveforms that they can transmit in order to jam and disrupt an
adversaries’ radar to protect themselves,” Prabhakar said. “Sometimes
when they go out today, they encounter a new kind of frequency or
different waveform—one that they’re not programmed for, that’s not in
their library, and in a time of conflict, that would leave them
exposed.”
During peacetime, the Pentagon usually deploys a signals intelligence
aircraft like the RC-135V/W Rivet Joint to collect data on a new
waveform. That data is then sent to a laboratory to be analyzed so that a
new jamming profile can be created. Those new jamming profiles are then
incorporated into a jet’s—F-22, F-35,
F/A-18 or any other fighter—operational flight program updates.
“Eventually, months—sometimes years—later our aircraft finally get the
protection that they need against this new kind of radar signal,”
Prabhakar said.
In the years prior to the digital revolution when radar
waveforms were rarely altered, that slow process might have been
adequate. In the current era where a new waveform can be created very
quickly with minor software tweaks, the current process leaves American
forces vulnerable. “That slow moving world is now gone,” Prabhakar said.
“It’s not that hard to modify a radar system today. If you think about,
the same technologies that have brought communications and the Internet
to billions of people around the world, those are the same technologies
that people are now using to modify radars.”
It’s a problem that has cropped up in many different regions around
the world, Pabhakar said. Right now, the only U.S. combat aircraft that
have some capacity to analyze enemy waveforms in real time are the
Northrop Grumman EA-6B Prowler—which is still serving with the
Marines—and the Navy’s Boeing EA-18G Growler. While both the Growler and Prowler have pre-programmed onboard threat libraries, both jets carry electronic warfare officers (EWO). Those EWOs can recognize and analyze the unknown enemy waveforms and—based on their experience—figure out a way to jam them in real time to an extent. However, it’s far from perfect because it relies purely on the skills of an individual EWO.
If DARPA’s new AI-based electronic warfare system works, it would
save the Pentagon time, money and potentially even save the lives of
aircrew if they encounter a new enemy surface-to-air missile system or
fighter radar. “So what all of that means is that our aircraft in the
future won’t have to wait weeks, months to years, but in real time, in
the battlespace, they’ll be able to adapt and jam this new radar threat
that they get.” Dave Majumdar is the new Defense Editor for the NationalInterest. You can follow him on Twitter: @DaveMajumdar. Image: Wikimedia Commons/U.S. Navy.
America's Lethal New B-21 vs. the B-2 Stealth Bomber
With the U.S. Air Forcerevealing concept art and a designation for its shadowy
Northrop Grumman B-21 Long Range Strike-Bomber (LRS-B) last week, there
are many details that we can now glean about the new warplane.
First and foremost, the new B-21 looks very similar to its B-2 Spirit
predecessor. In fact, the new aircraft look startlingly similar to the
original Advanced Strategic Penetration Aircraft (ASPA) and the later
Advanced Technology Bomber concept from the 1980s that ultimately
resulted in the B-2. But the Spirit was redesigned late in the game to
operate at low altitudes after Dr. Paul Kaminski’s—current chairman of
the Defense Science Board—Red Team cautioned that the B-2 might have to
resort to low-level penetration as the Soviets built new, more capable
radars—as legendary Aviation Week journalist Bill Sweetman points out in
his book “Inside the Stealth Bomber.” The redesign caused a decrease in range and payload, as well as a larger radar cross-section.
If the current B-21 design is truly representative of the direction
the Air Force is taking, the new aircraft will take the B-2’s all-aspect
stealth design to the next level. Particularly, the B-21’s low
observable design will be more effective against low frequency radars
operating in the UHF and VHF bands, which are increasingly coming into
vogue as a means to counter stealth aircraft. Indeed, as then Air Force
chief of staff Gen. Norton Schwartz told the House Armed Services
Committee in 2012, even the B-2 is starting to lose its ability
penetrate hostile airspace. “The technology on which they were designed
with respect to signature management . . . is ‘80s vintage,” Schwartz
told the committee, adding, “the reality is that the B-2 over time is
going to become less survivable in contested airspace.”
The B-21 design—which is similar to the original high-attitude
optimized B-2 design—is built to counter the low frequency radars that
can detect and track tactical fighter-sized stealth aircraft. Unlike an
F-22 or F-35, which are designed to operate in an environment where the
enemy might be aware of their presence, the B-2 and B-21 are designed to
avoid detection altogether. Basically, the B-21 (and B-2 to an
extent)—with its large flying-wing design—reduces its low frequency
radar cross-section to the point where it blends in with the background
noise inherent to those UHF/VHF band systems. That’s similar in concept
to how a submarine hides in the background noise of the ocean. But—like
all stealth aircraft—it will not be invisible. Stealth is not a cloak of
invisibility, after all. Stealth technology simply delays detection and
tracking.
While the Air Force’s rendering of the B-21 gives us some clues as to
the configuration of the new aircraft, most of its other parameters
remain unknown. The B-21’s size and payload will largely be determined
by whatever propulsion system is readily available to power it. Given
that the LRS-B is slated to enter into service in the mid-2020s, the
aircraft will necessarily have to use an existing engine design.
Moreover, that engine must have a profile conducive to a stealth
aircraft.
That would almost certainly rule out a commercial airliner engine
derivative with a large bypass—such an engine would have an extremely
large diameter even if it is highly efficient.
A more likely choice is a derivative of an existing military engine
that is already in production. Possible choices could include
unaugmented derivatives of the F-15 and F-16’s Pratt & Whitney F100
or General Electric F110. The F110, though an aged design, would give
the LRS-B commonality with the Rockwell International B-1 Lancer and
Northrop B-2 Spirit, both of which use engines from the same lineage.
The B-1’s F101 was derived into the F110, which in turn was derived into
the B-2’s F118 motors.
An F110 derivative does have its advantages, but the most likely
candidate to power the LRS-B is an unaugmented version of the Pratt
& Whitney F135, which in its current state offers roughly 28,000lbs
of dry thrust. With some tweaks, such as an increased bypass ratio,
a version of the F135 could probably produce more than 30,000lbs of
thrust while potentially increasing fuel efficiency. With two such
engines, an LRS-B would have less than the roughly 70,000lbs of thrust
available to the B-2, but there are indications that the B-21 is smaller
than the Spirit.
While the LRS-B
might be provisioned to accommodate whatever engine ultimately comes to
fruition from the Air Force’s adaptive-cycle engine program—variously
called ADVENT, AETD and AETP—if the service is serious about an initial
operational capability date around 2025, the new bomber will necessarily
use an existing propulsion plant. It takes a long time and large sums
of money to develop a new turbine engine. It’s also not an endeavor
without risk—look no further than China’s frustrated efforts to develop
an indigenous jet engine.
If one accepts the premise that the B-21 will be powered by twin
unaugmented F135 engines, one can then assume that the new bomber will
be larger than a Boeing F-15E Strike Eagle or General Dynamics F-111 but
smaller than the B-1 or B-2. Given the types of threats from low frequency radars
that are projected to be out there in the future and the limitations of
current low observables materials, B-21’s subsonic flying wing design
will be large enough to counter low frequency radars.
A tactical fighter-sized stealth aircraft must be optimized to
defeat higher-frequency bands such the C, X and Ku bands as a simple
matter of physics, but a strategic bomber like the B-2 or LRS-B can be
larger to counter lower frequency radars. There is a “step change” in a
stealth aircraft’s signature once the frequency wavelength exceeds a
certain threshold and causes a resonant effect. Typically, that
resonance occurs when a feature on an aircraft—such as a tail-fin—is
less than eight times the size of a particular frequency wavelength.
That means a bomber like the B-21 has to have allowances for two feet or
more of radar absorbent material coatings on every surface or the
designers are forced to make trades as to which frequency bands they
optimize the aircraft to operate in. As such, to defeat low frequency
radars operating in the L, UHF and potentially the VHF bands (this is
easier said than done—and could in fact be impossible), a flying wing
design is in effect, mandatory.
There are also indications that the Air Force is planning on building
significant electronic attack capability into the B-21 airframe (and
the LRS family). Electronic attack capability is necessary to counter
low frequency radars operating in the VHF band, which are nearly
impossible to defeat with airframe shape and low observable materials
alone. The fact is that despite the Air Force’s public narrative that
aircraft like the F-35 can go into a high threat zone alone and
unafraid, the service’s own experts at the Air Force Warfare Center
recognize the value of jamming. Stealth and electronic attack always
have a synergistic relationship because detection is about the signal to
noise ratio. Low observables reduce the signal, while electronic attack
increases the noise.
“An improvement would be to include that presumably these platforms
would be used in coordination with other platforms and weaponry so as to
increase the noise from which to hide within,” one Air Force official
with stealth aircraft experience told me. “Who wants to sort through a
pile of hay for a needle when there are plenty of obvious needles that
one should concern themselves with outside of the haystack?”
If the LRS-B is somewhat smaller than the B-2, the designers have to
pick between range and payload. Former Air Combat Command commander Gen.
William Fraser, a former B-52 pilot, told me few years ago when the
program was in its infancy that “a combat radius of between 2,000 and
2,500 nautical miles is sufficient, which equals a 4,000-5,000 nautical
mile range. All points on earth are within about 1,800 nautical
miles from the closest body of water.” Thus, one can assume that the
LRS-B will have at least that much range with whatever space leftover
being dedicated to its payload. The LRS-B doesn’t necessarily need to
carry the same amount of weaponry as the B-2, it just needs to carry the
biggest available weapon—maybe just one GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance
Penetrator (MOP) instead of two.
In terms of avionics, the Air Force appears to be doing something
smart. The aircraft will apparently use an open architecture computer
system, which means that the LRS-B won’t be hamstrung with antiquated
avionics and ponderous processes to integrate new weapons and
hardware—like what happened with the Lockheed Martin F-22, for example.
The aircraft will also be nuclear-capable from the get go, though it
won’t be certified to perform that mission until later. That’s not
surprising—and had been reported as early as 2011 during Gen. Norton
Schwartz’s tenure as Air Force chief of staff. The service also plans for the LRS-B to be optionally manned, however the chances of operating a $550 million aircraft without a pilot onboard are laughably small.
The bottom line is that the LRS-B is shaping up to be exactly what it was expected it to be. Dave Majumdar is the new Defense Editor for The National Interest. You can follow him on Twitter: @DaveMajumdar. Image: Wikimedia Commons/U.S. Department of Defense.
Turning the U.S. Navy’s next carrier-based drone into a tanker,
as the service announced this week, is probably a reasonable idea. For
some time, buddy-tanking F-18 Hornets has been a questionable use of
other Hornets, but one completely necessitated since 2009 by the full
retirement of the Lockheed S-3 Viking. The drone-tanker also makes for a modest start. On the USNI blog yesterday, Commander Salamander called it a “Choice of Prudence,”
questioning whether the hardware and software needed for autonomous
combat aircraft were really ready for the hardest missions. As I have
argued previously, this also allows the Navy to build operational
experience with carrier-based drones before it proceeds with plans for a
penetrating, stealthy, unmanned bomber. Pumping jet fuel through a
drogue hose at altitude is a task that doesn’t clearly require an
aircrew, and that doesn’t create a killer robot. But rather than
questioning whether the carrier-based drone should first be a tanker, we
might also ask why the fleet’s aerial tanker should be carrier-based.
Then, we should ask what other questions are going unasked.
To extend the range of carrier-based fighter-bombers, jet fuel needs
to be delivered at altitude. The U.S. Air Force and the U.S. Marine
Corps have KC-135s, KC-10s and KC-130s for this mission, but the
land-based tankers don’t quite accompany the fleet. Fuel is thus needed
from the sea, but why lift it off a carrier deck, or even from a carrier
at all? Every carrier underway is accompanied by an oiler, currently of
the Henry J. Kaiser class, and eventually of the John Lewis class.
From that ship, fuel flows into the carrier’s tanks during an underway
replenishment, and later from the carrier’s tanks to the aerial
refueler’s tanks. So here’s an alternative, suggested by Commander Phil
Pournelle of the Office of Net Assessment: trail the carrier group with
aerial refueling seaplanes. Refueling the tanker directly from the oiler
(through a hose trailing astern) skips a step, frees deck space and
cycle time on the carrier, and brings more fuel to altitude faster.
Of course, it’s reasonable to ask whether the U.S. Navy needs another
full-scale developmental aircraft program right now. Frankly, it
needn’t need one, because there already two plausible options.
In the mid-1950s, the Glenn L. Martin Company built fourteen early production models of the P6M Seamaster,
a twin-engine, jet-powered seaplane that was a bit larger than a
Lockheed Martin C-130. In its bureaucratic competition with the U.S. Air
Force, the Navy had planned these as part of a nuclear-armed “Seaplane
Striking Force”. The P6Ms may have made at least as much sense as aerial
minelayers, a mission the USAF has long since undertaken with B-52s.
Martin’s twin turboprop P5M Marlin
was more successful as a program, serving in the Navy from 1952 to
1967. The Seamaster, though, had some considerable
advantages—particularly its payload, akin to that of a modern Hercules.
The aircraft did have a troubled development, including a fatal crash,
but the basic concept has since been proven. Today, nine Beriev B-200
twin-jet seaplane water bombers fly fire-fighting missions for the
Russian Emergencies Ministry. Building updated P6Ms—and with drogue
hoses—would be an undertaking, but most of the design was done half a
century ago.
Another candidate is already in service with an allied
military. Since 2007, the 71st Squadron of the Japanese Air Force has
been operating four Shinmaywa US-2 turboprop amphibious aircraft (that
is, which can land on land or water) for search-and-rescue. An earlier
model, the US-1, was also a submarine hunter, rather like Lockheed's
S-3. In the 1960s, Shinmaywa was even overhauling the U.S. Navy’s P5Ms.
(James Simpson wrote a compact history of the business for War Is Boring
last year.) For the past several years, the company has been trying to
sell a squadron to the Indian Air Force for service in the Andaman
Islands, but as with all things in Indian military procurement, this is
taking longer than it should. Part of the attraction of the four-engined
US-2 is its meaningful payload—around half that of a C-130.
There are clear limitations to this approach. Ampibiosity
isn’t free: boat-like fuselages aren’t the most efficient for forward
flight. Water-landing aircraft can’t undertake rough-water rescues like
helicopters. In high seas, they can’t take fuel from oilers. Thus,
they’re clearly not a total replacement for either rotary- or fixed-wing
shipboard aircraft. But when sea conditions are reasonable, they can
supplement shipboard aircraft in many missions, with greater payload at
greater range. And there’s already a precedent in the sea services.
In the early 1950s, as Commander BJ Armstrong of Kings College London recently wrote in “The Answer to the Amphibious Prayer,”
the USMC thought that seaplanes might offer a more dispersible
alternative to large ships for assault over the beach. Seaplanes'
runways can’t be cratered, and they’re not such tempting targets for
cruise missiles. They can deploy from any sheltered bay or cove, as long
as a tender accompanies them. If that’s not mobile enough, note how the
USMC uses its land-based KC-130s in all sorts of roles: aerial tanking,
transport, surveillance and even ground attack with the Harvest Hawk
combat package. With all that functionality, it’s no surprise that every
shipborne Marine Expeditionary Unit is followed around the world by two
KC-130s, making use of friendly landing facilities where they can.
But as with USAF's tanker-transports, that's not fully expeditionary,
and “expeditionary” is the highest of compliments in the Marine Corps.
The broader point is that the Navy, the Marine Corps and many other
military organizations often have unconsidered options. Seaplanes might
seem like yesteryear’s technology with circumscribed possibilities, but
the math for getting fuel into fighter-bombers at altitude doesn't favor
aircraft designs which must fit onto ships. So as we charge forward
with all the man-machine interfacing of the Third Offset, it’s worth
asking what existing, proven concepts we can cost-effectively dust off. James Hasik is a senior fellow at the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security. This article first appeared in the Defense Industrialist. Image: Flickr/Ken H.
Exposed: Behind the U.S. Navy's Killer Drone Strategy Shift
The U.S. Navy has chosen to
develop an unmanned carrier-based aerial refueling tanker, instead of a
robotic stealth bomber in a decision that, in effect, kills two birds
with one stone.
Firstly, it gives the service a chance to learn how to operate a
drone from a flattop. Secondly, the Navy needs an organic carrier-based
aerial refueling capability to extend the range of its stealthy Lockheed
Martin F-35C Joint Strike Fighters and Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornets.
As an added bonus, it also takes some of the pressure off the
hard-ridden tactical fighter fleet.
“I want to get something on the deck of an aircraft
carrier—unmanned—as quickly as we can with a legitimate role to play
because there is so much we have got to learn there,” Adm. John
Richardson, U.S. Navy’s chief of naval operations, told an audience at
the American Enterprise Institute on February 12. “So many unexplored questions.”
That is why the Navy has changed its strategy. While in previous
years, the service had hoped to develop a modestly stealthy Unmanned
Carrier Launched Surveillance and Strike (UCLASS) aircraft to afford the
carrier air wing an organic persistent intelligence, surveillance and
reconnaissance (ISR) and light strike capability, the new effort—called
the Carrier-Based Aerial Refueling System (CBARS)— is a much more modest
effort. Moreover, it’s a far cry from the ultra-stealthy, ultra
long-range deep strike capability that many in Congress and the
Washington think-tank community had originally wanted.
The Navy is choosing to follow a path of incremental evolution
because the service does not yet fully understand how operate an
unmanned air vehicle from a carrier. There are fundamental issues such
as command and control, due regard and a host of other problems that
need to be ironed out. The CBARS will help the Navy to create the
fundamental infrastructure to develop and field more a sophisticated
unmanned aviation capability from a carrier somewhere down the line.
The Navy is, Richardson said, “looking at something that can get us
there, has a legitimate role—tanking and I would say ISR is on the table
for sure—we’ll free up tactical aircraft by virtue of taking on that
mission.
“But even more important,” he added, “we’ll learn how to integrate unmanned aircraft into our air wing.”
Despite the impressive results of the Northrop Grumman X-47B
demonstrator, carrier-based unmanned aviation is its infancy. “There is
just so much to learn now, and I want to get after that,” Richardson
said. “In the meantime, the decisions that we make now, we’ll do our
very best not to preclude increasing the platform’s capability in other
areas as technologies come available, as we learn those lessons and we
kind of grow into that.”
Meanwhile, don’t get too attached to the CBARS name—it’s a
placeholder. “We’ll come up with something better than that,” Richardson
said. Dave Majumdar is the defense editor for the National Interest. You can follow him on Twitter: @davemajumdar. Image: Flickr/U.S. Navy.
Flash Point: America’s Lethal F-22 vs. China’s Fiery HQ-9
Even though tensions are
running high after China deployed its powerful HQ-9 air and missile
defense system to the disputed Woody Island in the South China Sea, war
is unlikely to break out. But in the event of a conflict, the United
States has one asset in the region that can effectively counter the
HQ-9—the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor.
The HQ-9 is a very capable weapon that fuses the best qualities of
the Russian-made Almaz Antey S-300P (SA-10 Growler) and the U.S.-made
MIM-104 Patriot—which Beijing acquired thanks to Israel.
But it also has features that most U.S.- and Russian-made
surface-to-air missiles (SAM) systems don’t—such as an active
electronically scanned array radar. A single HQ-9 battery can engage six
targets simultaneously out to 120 miles at altitudes up to 90,000ft.
Moreover, some versions of the HQ-9’s interceptor missiles are thought
to be able to engage targets as far out as 150 miles. In effect, the
weapon is powerful enough to create a de facto no-fly zone for conventional aircraft within that bubble.
The stealthy fifth-generation F-22 Raptor is the U.S. Air Force’s
best counter to the HQ-9. Though the F-22 was originally conceived as a
dedicated air superiority fighter, the Raptor has proven to be
remarkably versatile aircraft. Indeed, in recent years, in addition to
air superiority, the Raptor’s primary role has been to “kick down the
door” for Northrop Grumman B-2 stealth bombers as part of the Global Strike Task Force
concept because of its formidable ability to shred enemy air defenses.
More recently over Iraq and Syria, the F-22’s powerful sensor suite has
seen the Raptor being used as a reconnaissance and even a command and
control asset.
The Air Force already as an expeditionary squadron of Raptors deployed to the region from Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson’s 3rd Wing in Alaska. The 3rd Wing’s jets—which tend to be first in line for upgraded equipment—are in the latest Increment 3.2A configuration.
That means that in addition to being upgraded with synthetic aperture
radar mapping, geo-location capabilities and Small Diameter Bomb (SBD)
capability, those jets feature much improved combat identification
ability and a Link-16 feed that is fused with the rest of the Raptor’s
sensor data.
It’s not clear if the jets that are currently in theatre are equipped
with the Raptor’s Upgrade 5 software—which was scheduled to be released
in October 2015—but those aircraft could also feature a rudimentary
capability to launch the AIM-9X Sidewinder and AIM-120D AMRAAM, as well
as feature an automatic ground collision avoidance system, if so
equipped. Upgrade 5 allows Raptor pilots to exploit new weapons such as
the AIM-9X high off-boresight dogfighting missile (Upgrade 4 in the case
of the AIM-120D) using “rules of thumb”—but it does not display the
correct symbology for the new ordnance. Full integration of the AIM-9X
and AIM-120D will be fielded in 2018 along with much improved
geo-location capabilities with the Increment 3.2B upgrade—which includes
a new stores management system.
The Raptor—with the geo-location capability added in the
Increment 3.1 upgrade—is a lethal weapon against enemy surface-to-air
missiles like the S-300 and S-400—or HQ-9, as the case may be. With it
synthetic aperture radar and geo-location ability, the Raptor can locate
the highly mobile SAMs and engage them from relative safety using a
combination of blistering speed and stealth. Indeed, the F-22 can
sustain Mach 1.8+ without afterburners and has a radar cross section the
size of a metal marble. That means it can get close enough to an HQ-9
site to engage it with a 250lbs SBDs or 1,000lbs JDAM satellite-guided
bomb without being exposed for too long.
China’s HQ-9 deployment to Woody Island might allow Beijing to ward
of the air forces of neighboring countries, but the arrival of the F-22
Raptor to the region means that the U.S. Air Force still has free reign
over the skies of the South China Sea. Dave Majumdar is the defense editor for the National Interest. You can follow him on Twitter: @davemajumdar. Image: Flickr/U.S. Air Force.
The United States Air Force
is developing podded defensive lasers to shoot down incoming air-to-air
and surface-to-air missiles. But there are many hurdles that have yet to
be crossed.
“There is a lot of technology in beam steering and in power
management and in thermal management that has to be worked in these that
we are working under a considered S&T [science and technology]
program with an eye toward transitioning on those to aircraft,” Dr.
David Walker, deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force for science,
technology and engineering, told the House Armed Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities on February 24.
Air Combat Command and the Air Force Research Laboratory are working
on a program called SHIELD—for Self-protected High-Energy Laser
Demonstration—which would place a 30-kilowatt powered laser into an
externally carried pod. As technology improves, the service hopes to
grow the power output of the defensive laser.
The SHIELD-pod—which is currently just a demonstrator—is not being
designed for fifth-generation stealth fighters like the Lockheed Martin
F-22 Raptor or the F-35. The externally carried pod would force those
jets to sacrifice their stealth characteristics. Rather, the technology
would help older aircraft and conventional fighters like the Boeing
F-15E Strike Eagle to better enable those jets to survive in contested
airspace.
Initially, the Air Force is focusing on defensive lasers. But
eventually—once the technology matures—the service hopes to develop
offensive lasers. The Air Force Special Operations Command—working in
conjunction the Navy—is examining the possibility of placing an
offensive laser onboard an AC-130 gunship, Walker said. However, an
AC-130—which is based on the Hercules airframe—is a much larger platform
than a fighter. “I think we are on a good path to move to electric
lasers,” Walker said.
While defensive lasers in the 100-kilowatt range might be fielded by
the mid-2020s, it will take much longer to field long-range offensive
air-to-air lasers. Those high-powered lasers would require a minimum of
300-kilowatts—according to Air Force sources—and might take decades to
field.
Nonetheless, lasers will be among the technologies the Air Force will
study for its Next Gen Air Dominance efforts to replace the F-22 and
F-15C Eagle. Dave Majumdar is the new Defense Editor for the National Interest. You can follow him on Twitter: @DaveMajumdar.
As the varieties and utilities of drones quickly multiply, the use of
unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has quickly mounted throughout the US
Armed Forces.
From reconnaissance roles within the US Army to attack roles within
the US Air Force, and with squadrons within both the Navy and the
Marines, the proliferation of drones has touched every element of the US
Armed Forces.
The following graphic, from CI Geography, shows just how widespread the use of drones is within the US. You can see a larger version of the poster here:
Currently, the US Air Force has the highest number of drone
squadrons. The Air Force uses drones in reconnaissance, special
operations, attack, and electronic squadrons.
The Navy, conversely, only fields the MQ-8B Fire Scout in two
squadrons. The MQ-8B is a helicopter drone that is primarily used for
reconnaissance, situational awareness, and to provide fire control.
Altogether, according to the graphic, the US Armed Forces has 50 units that make use of UAVs in some capacity.
This chart shows the incredible cost of operating the US Air Force's most expensive planes
By Jeremy Bender and Mike Nudelman
5 hours ago
The US Air Force's unquestioned aerial dominance does not come cheap.
For the Air Force's 10 most expensive planes, operating costs per hour start at $58,059, and it only climbs from there.
The following graphic, based upon the Air Force's cost per hour of
flight estimations, lists the 10 most expensive planes to operate in
descending order:
(Mike Nudelman/Business Insider)
The E-4 Nightwatch is far
and away the most expensive military plane that the Air Force operates.
The Nightwatch operates as a command and control aircraft that is meant
to serve as a flying airbase for the president and members of cabinet
in case of a national disaster.
Designed as a doomsday plane, the Nightwatch is so expensive to operate
due to both its size and its technical abilities. The plane is
specially designed to survive electromagnetic pulses, with additional
thermal and nuclear shielding. It also can refuel aerially and can fit
up to 112 passengers.
Surprisingly, the much maligned
F-35 is actually only the seventh most expensive plane per hour that the
Air Force flies. The F-35's costs are partially due to the lack of an efficient supply-chain for the aircraft, something that should be sorted out over the coming years.
Among the cheapest aircraft that the Air Force operates are Predator Drones and the A-10. These aircraft cost an estimated $1,500 and $11,500 per hour to operate, respectively.
The Pentagon has few weapons as iconic and fearsome—not to mention as old—as the B-52 Stratofortress. Now the U.S. Air Force plans to send the bombers to strike the Islamic State.
Air Force Gen. Herbert Carlisle, head of Air Combat Command, made the
announcement at the Air Force Association’s annual Air Warfare
Symposium on February 26. Lt. Gen. Charles Brown, in charge of the
flying branch’s top headquarters for the Middle East, said he would help
“bring B-52s to town,” according to Air Force Magazine.
The eight-engine aircraft will take over from the sleeker B-1 “Bone”
bombers, which halted bombing runs in Iraq and Syria in January. The Air
Force pulled the B-1s from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar to give their
crews some much needed rest and to fit important upgrades to the
aircraft.
Less than a month after the first air strikes against Islamic State
in August 2014, observers spotted the Bones flying missions over Iraq
and Syria. In December, the swing-wing jets supported the Iraqi army
during an offensive to retake Ramadi.
“We’ve got B-1s in this fight, and when we find obstacles that we
know we can hit, we’ll strike them from the air as well to try and
disable them,” Pentagon spokesman U.S. Army Col. Steve Warren said in a
December 24 interview on CNN. “B-1s are evolving into a very effective close air support platform.”
Despite the symbolism, these warplanes are not engaged in carpet
bombing. Since the B-1’s entrance in the war, they’ve dropped
precision-guided Joint Direct Attack Munitions precisely onto Islamic
State positions. When they arrive, the B-52s are likely to fly the same
sort of missions.
On May 18, 2015, two B-52Hs conclusively demonstrated
their ability to do just that in Jordan. The aircraft flew a non-stop
round trip from Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana to Wadi Shadiya
and back for a training exercise, racking up 30 hours of flying time and
traveling 14,000 miles in the process.
During the mission, the bombers dropped strings of JDAMs in a mock attack over a practice range.
Though they might seem smaller than the B-52s, the Bones can carry as
much as 75,000 pounds of bombs—more than their 1960s counterparts. Able
to fly tens of thousands of feet high, both bombers can easily stay out
of range of the Islamic State’s small anti-aircraft guns and short
range, shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles.
The more vexing problem is coordinating with Iraqi and other
friendly troops on the ground. With few American forces in the country,
the Pentagon has had a hard time confirming that bombs and missiles are hitting their intended targets.
While safe from enemy fire, bombers flying high in the sky can have
difficulty finding their mark. In June 2014, a B-1 accidentally killed
five American commandos and an Afghan soldier in Afghanistan. Another
Air Force pilot recounted a similar story where another Bone nearly killed a contingent of British troops in 2007.
Of course, the relatively fast-moving pace of aerial combat and the
general confusion of battle can still cause problems for low-flying
aircraft. On March 13, 2015, two A-10 ground attack planes killed at
least four civilians in Iraq after mistakenly assuming
they were Islamic State fighters. The Pentagon only investigated the
incident after a survivor came forward seeking reimbursement for her
destroyed SUV.
Even after the B-1s returned home, the Air Force was still unsure of
whether the older B-52s would take their place. “A B-52 deployment is
not part of the mix of B-1B substitutes being considered,” Air Force Lt.
Gen. John Raymond, the service’s deputy chief of staff for operations,
told Air Force Magazineon January 21.
Despite their age, the B-52s have received significant upgrades for
their communications equipment, targeting gear and other systems.
Despite being a half-century old, the combat-ready aircraft regularly
appear in training exercises around the world. Joseph Trevithick is a reporter for War is Boring, where this article first appeared. Image: Flickr/U.S. Air Force.
http://www.businessinsider.com/
The most lethal combat aircraft in the world just got more capable
Senior Airman Laura Turner and Senior Airman Garrett Hothan / US Air Force
On Mar. 1, 2016, the 90th Fighter Squadron (FS) belonging to the 3rd Wing stationed at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska officially became the first combat-operational Raptor unit to equip an F-22 with the AIM-9X Sidewinder.
According to Chief Master Sgt. Chuck Jenkins, 3rd Wing Weapons Manager, the AIM-9X
will increase the already outstanding Raptor’s combat capabilities.
“This has been in the inventory for the Air Force and Navy for some
years; it’s nothing new to the military, but to put it on the Ferrari of
aircraft — the F-22, the most advanced aircraft we have — it gives the
pilots more maneuverability, larger range, and it’s a much faster
missile,” he said.
A claim confirmed by Lt. Col David Skalicky, commander of the 90th FS, who highlighted that, like the F-22 is a generation beyond
the fighters that came before it, the AIM-9X is a generation beyond the
previous variants of the Sidewinder missile: “Every aspect about this
missile, it’s a huge capability increase in all facets, we can employ it
in more scenarios, at greater range, and reach edges of the envelope we
would have had a more difficult time reaching with the AIM-9M.”
The late arrival of the AIM-9X (already integrated in most of US combat planes since 2003) to the F-22 very well may signal a new era in Air Force airpower,
since as told by Skalicky “this missile makes the most lethal combat
aircraft the world has ever seen even more capable. It’s a giant
enhancement to the already formidable F-22 arsenal.”
Noteworthy, the AIM-9X will not be coupled to a Helmet Mounted
Display (HMD) as the F-22 is not equipped with such kind of helmet that
provides the essential flight and weapon aiming information through line
of sight imagery (the project to implement it was axed following 2013 budget cuts).
With a HMD (like the American Joint Helmet Mounted Cueing System —
JHMCS), information imagery (including aircraft’s airspeed, altitude,
weapons status, aiming etc.) are projected on the visor enabling the
pilot to look out in any direction with all the required data always in
his field of vision.
The HMD would enable the pilot to exploit the full HOBS (High
Off-Boresight) capabilities of the AIM-9X and engage a target by simply
looking at it.
Senior Airman Laura Turner and Senior Airman Garrett Hothan / US Air Force
However, the F-22 will probably fill the gap and benefit of the
AIM-9X Block II, that is expected to feature a Lock-on After Launch
capability with a datalink, for Helmetless High Off-Boresight (HHOBS):
the air-to-air missile will be launched first and then directed to its
target afterwards even though it is behind the launching aircraft.
Initial testing highlighted a problem though: whilst HHOBS in Block II worked pretty well, its performance was below the performance seen in Block I.
Russia’s upgraded Tupolev Tu-160M2 Blackjack supersonic bomber is expected to make its first flight in 2019.
Moscow currently has sixteen of the original version of the Mach
2.0-capable bomber, which are the last surviving examples of the
thirty-five aircraft built by the Soviet Union before its demise. Moscow
hopes to build fifty new Tu-160M2 aircraft to upgrade its aging
strategic bomber force.
“I believe that in 2019 this plane, upgraded and manufactured, will
make its maiden flight,” Col. Gen. Viktor Bondarev, commander of the
Russian Aerospace Forces told the Moscow-basedTASS News Agency on March 2.
Russia made the decision to extend the development of the Tupolev
PAK-DA in favor of the Tu-160M2 in 2015. Serial production of the new
Blackjack variant is expected to start in 2023. According to Russia’s
deputy defense minister Yuri Borisov—as cited by TASS—the Tu-160M2 has
been fundamentally upgraded with completely new mission systems and
other improvements over the existing M variant. “This will be
essentially a new airplane, not a Tu-160 but a Tu-160M2,” Borisov toldRIA Novosti last year.
Details on the exact nature of the Tu-160M2 upgrades are scarce.
Presumably, Tupolev has made long-overdue adjustments to the airframe
that were supposed to have been implemented during the Blackjack’s
original production run. However, those tweaks are likely to be fairly
minor. The major upgrades are almost certainly going to be focused on
the bomber’s avionics suite.
Russia’s Radio-Electronic Technologies Concern (KRET) is working on
developing the new avionics suite for the Tu-160M2. “Today we can say
with confidence that the new aircraft will be constructed using the
elements of integrated modular avionics (IMA),” the company told
Russia’s state-ownedRIA Novosti.
“In the project to modernize the Tu-160, KRET will be creating new
on-board systems, controls, a gimbal-less inertial navigation system,
electronic warfare complex, fuel use monitoring systems, as well as
weapons control systems.”
Some of the new avionics could find their way onto the PAK-DA,
which is being developed in parallel to the Tu-160M2. “The resumption
of production of the Tu-160 will mobilize all research and manufacturing
facilities of concern in this area and create an ideology for a
fundamentally new approach to be implemented in the framework of the
project of creation PAK-DA,” KRET told the Russian outlet.
While much of the aircraft will be new, the Tu-160 will nonetheless
retain its original nuclear deterrence mission. Unlike the stealthy
Northrop Grumman B-2 or future B-21, the Russian bomber primarily relies
on a combination of blistering speed andnuclear-tipped cruise missiles to deliver its doomsday payload.
Indeed, it’s probable—given Russia’s nuclear doctrine—that even the futurePAK-DA stealth bomber will rely primarily on long-range nuclear-tipped cruise missiles for the nuclear deterrence role. Dave Majumdar is the defense editor for the National Interest. You can follow him on Twitter: @davemajumdar. Image: Wikimedia Commons/Mod/MOD.
The Pentagon erred in
prematurely terminating the stealthy Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor air
superiority fighter program—having miscalculated how quickly the
Russians and Chinese would develop new aircraft. While the Raptor is not
likely to brought back into production, the Air Force and Navy have
started work on a next generation air superiority capability.
The basic problem stems from a mistake that was made in the aftermath
of the Cold War. During the 1990s and the early 2000s—with the Soviet
threat evaporating—the Defense Department did not anticipate facing off
against a near-peer threat in the foreseeable future. That assessment
was wrong—as Russian and Chinese developments have shown.
“The department and the Congress made a decision that we would not
see a near-peer threat within a number of years, and that decision also
proved to be—and that judgment—also proved to be optimistic,” Lt. Gen.
James Holmes, Air Force deputy chief of staff forstrategic plans and requirements told the Senate Armed Services Committee on March 8. “We’ve seen both Russia and China develop airplanes much faster than was anticipated.”
Premature termination of the F-22 line at 187 aircraft has left the
Air Force vulnerable to new Russian air defenses. Asked by Sen. Joe
Donnelly (D-IN) about the threat posed by advanced Russian-made
defenses—especially the S-400—Air Force officials expressed caution.
“I’m very concerned for our airmen against the advanced threats,” Lt.
Gen. John Raymond, deputy chief of staff for operations told the
committee.
Holmes added that air superiority in the context of modern air
defenses is more than just pure air-to-air combat—aircraft have to be
able to destroy systems like the S-400 or neutralize those threats with
electronic warfare or cyber attacks. “We’ll have to continue to spend
money toimprove the capability
of both the F-22 and the F-15 while we work our way through to a
replacement,” Holmes said. On the gap between America’s superior
capabilities and those of other nations, Holmes said, “We need to make
that bigger again.”
So far, the Pentagon has not looked at the possibility of reopening
the Raptor line because it would cost a lot of money. However, it is not
outside the realm of possibility that a contractor might bid a
modernized Raptor or F-35 for the Next Generation Air Dominance program
that’s aimed at replacing the F-22 and F-15C. “The Air Force and the
Navy have been collaborating on a future capability that was called the
Next Generation Air Dominance platform,” Holmes said. “We’ve worked
together in our studies, worked together on providing technology
together.”
While the original plan was to start a joint analysis of alternatives for anext-generation air superiority machine,
the Navy has already kicked off its study after the Air Force deferred
its program. “We delayed a year because we wanted to take a broader look
at the picture,” Holmes said. “We’ll move forward next year.”
But because the service needs a new fighter by the 2030s, the Air
Force might not have the time to develop a completely new jet from
scratch, it is possible that the a modernized F-22 might rise from the
ashes. “Because we want to do it faster and we can’t afford to do
another twenty-year development program for a host of reasons, we’ll try
to go with technology that’s at a high readiness level now,” Holmes
said. “I think it’s completely possible as we get to a requirement that
there may be competitors that bid on a modification of an existing
technology or platform like the F-22 and the F-35.”
Thus, the Raptor could one day—like the mythical Phoenix—rise from its ashes. Dave Majumdar is the defense editor for the National Interest. You can follow him on Twitter: @davemajumdar. Image: Lockheed Martin.
Lockheed's Hybrid Wing Body Plane Will Fly This Year, in Model Form
Lockheed
Martin's Hybrid Wing Body (HWB) airlifter will fly sometime this
year-or at least a four percent scale model of the aircraft will fly.
The model has completed testing in a low-speed wind tunnel and is ready
to be refurbished and flown for real.
Aerospace
companies use low-speed wind tunnels-such as Lockheed's in Marietta,
Georgia-to test models of the aircraft they are designing. Lockheed's
45-pound HWB model has a wingspan of 10-feet, and is capable of flying
using 10-pound thrusters that are essentially ducted fans. The model's
thrusters are not exactly to scale for the large-diameter turbofan
engines that are planned for the full-sized aircraft, but the propulsion
produced is the same.
The
HWB is an appealing design, blending the wings into the body of the
aircraft to make room for larger-than-normal engines and achieve high
fuel efficiency. If it goes into production, it could ultimately replace
large cargo aircraft used by the military. Design models and the wind
tunnel testing suggest that the HWB could carry as much as the Lockheed C-5 Galaxy, the biggest cargo plane used by the U.S. military (payload capacity 240,000 pounds), and burn 70% less fuel than the Boeing C-17 Globemaster, the most commonly used military cargo plane.
Rick Hooker, Lockheed Martin Skunk Works program manager for the HWB project, told Aviation Weekly that the model aircraft will be flown remotely "sometime this year."
Unlike
flying-wing aircraft such as the B-2 Stealth Bomber, the HWB does not
rely on any advanced control effectors, such as thrust vectoring, to
maintain stability. In other words, it's designed to fly just like a
normal plane. "It flies just like a tube-and-wing aircraft, using
aileron, elevator and rudder," Hooker told Aviation Weekly.
In
addition to the low-speed tests that were conducted on the model that
will fly, Lockheed has also tested a heavy metal half-span model of the
aircraft designed to withstand transonic speeds in the National
Transonic Facility at NASA Langley Research Center.
If
all goes smoothly during the model flight tests later this year, then
we just might see Lockheed lay out some plans for the development of a
full-sized airlifter.
In
the middle of June 2015, a U.S. Air Force F-16 fighter took off from an
air base in Alaska and flew over a military training range at 430 miles
per hour. On command, something burst from the fighter’s flare
dispenser—a drone roughly the size of a soda can and weighing just one
pound.
The tiny, orange- and black-colored robot fluttered toward the ground
trailing a parachute. After a few seconds, the chute separated from the
drone, the robot’s wings—which had folded into the body for
compactness—extended outward. An inch-wide propeller began spinning,
propelling the diminutive machine forward.
The drone is called “Perdix.” It’s the latest product of the
Strategic Capabilities Office, a secretive Pentagon organization, formed
in 2012, whose job is to find new ways to deploy existing weapons.
One of the office’s ideas is to transform F-16s and other fast jets
into high-speed launchers for swarms of small drones that could confuse
enemy defenses or perform surveillance.
“Just imagine an airplane going in against an [integrated air
defense] system and dropping thirty of these out that form into a
network and do crazy things,” Bob Work, the deputy defense secretary, told trade publication Breaking Defense. “We’ve tested this. We’ve tested it and it works.”
The Perdix drones are 3D-printed out of Kevlar and carbon-fiber.
Powered by lithium-ion batteries—the same kind you’d find in a cell
phone—the Perdixes launch from a standard flare dispenser, like on the
F-16, F/A-18 and other warplanes.
Toughness was a key design requirement. A Perdix must survive
forceful ejection from a high-speed launcher and right itself in
turbulent winds.
The drones were originally developed
by students at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 2011. The
students tested the Perdixes from balloons and envisioned the small
unmanned aerial vehicles supporting environmental monitoring.
But it was the military that was most interested in the tiny
machines. The Virginia-based Strategic Capabilities Office—a
twenty-six-person team led by William Roper, a physicist who previously
worked for the military on missile defense—began experimenting with
Perdix in 2014.
The Alaska sortie was the first in a rapid-fire series of
flight tests. As part of the Northern Edge war game last June, fighters
launched Perdix drones 72 times. After deploying, a swarm of potentially
dozens of the Perdix robots connect via radio datalink—and pursue their
objective.
“The specifics of what the mini-drones can do are classified, but
they could be used to confuse enemy forces and carry out surveillance
missions using equipment that costs much less than full-sized unmanned
aircraft,” the Washington Postreported.
Fighter-launched robotic decoys are not new, per se. The
F-16 was one of the first U.S. military aircraft to carry the Miniature
Air-Launched Decoy, a roughly 10-foot-long, radar-spoofing drone,
starting in the late 1990s.
The difference is the swarm. While an F-16 might launch only
a couple of MALDs, the same plane could deploy up thirty
Perdixes—thirty is the flare capacity of the standard ALE-47
countermeasures dispenser—making the smaller drones much harder to
destroy and potentially much more effective.
Not to mention cheaper. A single ADM-160B MALD costs more than
$300,000. Two years of testing involving potentially hundreds of
Perdixes has cost the government just $20 million, thanks in part to the
initiative’s heavy reliance on existing technology.
“We don’t have to develop fundamentally new weapons,” Roper told The Washington Post.
“But we have to work the integration and the concept of operation. And
then you have a completely new capability, but you don’t have to wait
long at all.” David Axe is a contributor to War is Boring, where this article first appeared. Image: U.S. Air Force.
Lockheed Martin’s SR-72 Hypersonic Plane Could Be Built For Under $1B, Likely To Be Ready In 2030s
An artist's impression of Lockheed Martin's conceptual hypersonic jet is seen in this undated photo. Photo: Lockheed Martin
Lockheed
Martin Corp. said Tuesday it was on the verge of a technological
breakthrough that would allow its conceptual SR-72 hypersonic plane to
reach six times the speed of sound, or Mach 6, according to reports.
Marillyn Hewson, CEO of Lockheed, said that a hypersonic demonstrator
aircraft the size of an F-22 stealth fighter could be built for less
than $1 billion.
The company is working on an “aerodynamic
configuration” that would allow the successor to the famed SR-71
Blackbird spy plane to fly at Mach 6 speed, Hewson said, according to Reuters. Such a plane would give the U.S. military a major advantage, allowing it to reach targets before the enemy could react.
Orlando
Carvalho, head of Lockheed's aeronautics division, said the U.S.
government's current plan was to manufacture and deploy a hypersonic
weapon, before moving on to develop and deploy a hypersonic aircraft,
Reuters reported. He added that the U.S. could make a hypersonic weapon
by the 2020s, but a hypersonic aircraft like the SR-72 would be
manufactured in the 2030s.
Carvalho also said that Lockheed has
been working on an engine for the hypersonic aircraft with Aerojet
Rocketdyne, a rocket manufacturer, Financial Times
reported. He added that innovation was “much more rapid” now than in
the past because of Aerojet’s engine work and Lockheed’s work
on aircraft materials, the report added.
“That said, it’s going to
require a significant amount of development work, investment and
maturing of the technology,” Carvalho, according to the Financial Times.
Lockheed
announced plans for the SR-72 hypersonic plane in 2013, billing it as
an aircraft that would fly twice as fast as the SR-71 Blackbird.
http://nextbigfuture.com/
Lockheed confident they can fly demonstrator hypersonic missiles by 2018
and reusable hypersonic aircraft the size of an F-22 could be demoed in
the 2020s
Hypersonic flight is defined as anything about Mach 5, meaning five
times the speed of sound or 3,600 miles per hour. To put it into
perspective, a jet flying at hypersonic speeds could cross the
continental United States in about half an hour.
Lockheed is working on breakthroughs in new thermal protection systems,
innovative aerodynamic shapes, navigation guidance and control
improvements, and long-range communication capabilities.
Based on lessons learned from HTV-2, Lockheed is currently supporting two new customer efforts in hypersonics:
1. the Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept, or HAWC, and
2. the Tactical Boost Glide vehicle
Lockheed’s secretive Skunkworks arms is working with Aerojet Rocketdyne
to mature technologies for HAWC, a joint DARPA-US Air Force effort,
according to Skunkworks executive vice president Rob Weiss. Lockheed’s
HAWC uses a booster to get up to altitude and then fires a “scramjet”
engine that funnels in oxygen from the outside air to reach upwards of
Mach 5.
Lockheed will submit a proposal for the Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon
Concept later this month, and expects a contract award in the middle of
the year, Weiss said. A demonstrator aircraft will fly in the 2018
timeframe.
Hewson also showed an image of a third hypersonic concept, similar to
the HAWC but with a recoverable “turbine-based combined cycle” engine,
Weiss explained. The HAWC’s booster is designed for a single use, he
stressed. There is not yet a DARPA project for this capability, and
Lockheed still needs to mature the propulsion technology, he said.
Lockheed estimates it will cost less than $1 billion to develop, build
and fly a reusable hypersonic demonstrator aircraft the size of an F-22s
than $1 billion.
Lockheed sees a hypersonic weapon capability in the 2020s, and a hypersonic air vehicle – manned or unmanned – in the 2030s
"The technology could also enable hypersonic passenger flights, and even
easier access to space," she said. The question is whether there's an
appetite for such an aircraft right now. "Now is the right time," Hewson
insisted. "We know we must continue to disrupt ourselves before our
competitors do."
The Senate Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Committee is holding an inquiry into the planned acquisition of the F-35 Lightning II (Joint Strike Fighter). ASPI has had a keen interest in this project for over a decade, so we made a submission (available here).
The public discussion of the F-35 is a curious mix of diametrically
opposed views—either the F-35 is the biggest folly ever to attract
funding, or it’s a game-changing platform about to turn traditional
notions of air combat on their head. It’s fair to say that the public submissions to the inquiry are heavily weighted towards the former. Those views can’t both be true (though they can both be wrong).
For a couple of reasons, we decided not to enter the debate about the
merits of the F-35 as a platform in our submission. First, and in
common with the most vociferous critics of the aircraft, we don’t have
the data required to do so. Second, and more important, there aren’t a
lot of options in any case. It’s either the F-35, or something from an
earlier generation of combat aircraft design—an unappealing option for
an air force looking to recapitalize an ageing fleet of 1980s built
Hornets.
We note that some of the public submissions suggested that the answer
lies in the USAF’s F-22 Raptor. While it’s impressive, it’s expensive
to maintain (with costs per flying hour about the same as a B-52), suffers from low (but improving) availability, is long out of production and is not available for export. And if that’s not impossible enough, the RAND Corporation estimates that new build F-22s could cost US$276 million each (2019 dollars) compared to a projected US$90 million for an F-35 in 2019.
Having limited choices isn’t great, but it’s a direct consequence of
Australia’s precipitous decision to go all-in for the F-35 back in 2002,
shutting down a study into future air combat options that was in
progress at the time. If it hadn’t been for then Defence Minister
Brendan Nelson’s 2007 intervention—despite advice to the contrary from the RAAF—to
buy an ‘interim air combat capability’ in the form of 24 F/A-18F Super
Hornets, today’s RAAF’s air combat force would be much less capable,
given that the F-111 was retired six years ago.
ASPI last looked at the F-35 acquisition in detail back in 2014, when the Abbott government approved the purchase of fifty-eight aircraft.
At the time our best judgment was that the F-35 had put many (not all)
of its development problems behind it. We judged that the timetable for
an Australian acquisition had enough leeway to allow for a few more
hiccups and still deliver before the A/B model Hornets reach the end of
their lives in the early 2020s.
We still think that’s the most likely outcome, despite some
disappointing observations from the Pentagon’s most recently released Directorate of Operational Testing and Evaluation report. Even a sympathetic reading of the report (and the predictably upbeat response from the F-35 program office)
suggests that significant issues remain, and that further slippages in
delivery of full operational capability are possible. That’s why our
submission reaches these conclusions:
1) We don’t see any need to change Australia’s current
plan at the moment. The F-35 remains the RAAF’s best choice for its
future air combat capability.
2) Further delays to F-35 delivery could drastically limit
[Australia’s] possible responses in the early 2020s, and a capability
gap is a possibility.
3) As a prudent hedging measure we recommend that Defence gather data
regarding the window of opportunity for future orders of an additional
tranche of Super Hornets.
The idea of a second tranche of ‘interim’ aircraft will no doubt
receive the same response from the RAAF as did the first. The RAAF has
its eyes firmly set on the F-35 and probably won’t welcome any
suggestion of deviating from that course. But we don’t think it would
necessarily be a bad thing, and it would certainly be better than
running out of serviceable jets sometime around 2023.
As our colleague Malcolm Davis pointed out last week,
it’s not too early to start thinking about what comes after the F-35.
The F-35 would’ve been a world beater if it had been delivered to the
USAF in 2007 as originally planned. It might still be a world beater,
but there’s no doubt that the margin has narrowed as competitors have
built their first stealth aircraft and develop counter-stealth technologies. The ‘lost decade’ will have consequences for the longevity of the F-35.
So instead of an all-in approach on the F-35 (that ship sailed when
the Super Hornets were ordered anyway), we wonder if there’s another
answer that’s more “future proof.” A mix of fifty Super Hornets and
fifty F-35s, with the Super Hornets to be replaced around 2030 by fifty
of ‘whatever comes next’, might be worth contemplating. In any case,
some contingency planning is in order. Andrew Davies is senior analyst for defense capability and
director of research at ASPI. James Mugg is a researcher at ASPI. This article first appeared in the Strategist. Image: Wikimedia Commons/U.S. Department of Defense.
http://www.ibtimes.com/
Russia Test-Fires Hypersonic Zircon Missiles For Nuclear Submarines, Weapons To Reach Mach 5 Speed
A view of a Russian warship during celebrations of the Defenderof the Fatherland Day in Sevastopol, Crimea, Feb. 23, 2016. Photo: REUTERS/Pavel Rebrov
Russia began
testing its navy’s new hypersonic Zircon cruise missiles, Sputnik News
reported citing RIA Novosti Thursday. The cruise missiles are expected
to reach five or six times the speed of sound (Mach 5 or Mach 6), the
report added.
“The tests of the hypersonic Zircon missiles have
begun using a ground-based launching site,” a senior Defense Ministry
source told RIA Novosti, according to Sputnik News.
Once
the tests are confirmed successful, the missile will reportedly be
presented for state approval. It will reportedly be installed
on Russia's newest fifth-generation Husky-class nuclear submarines,
which are currently being developed.
Modern Russian anti-ship
missiles, like Onyx, can reach up to Mach 2.6 (750 meters per second).
The sea-based Kalibr cruise missile travels at a Mach 0.9 speed, but
while approaching the target, its warhead speeds up to Mach 2.9.
The Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles will also be used for Russian battleship Pyotr Veliky, Tass news agency reported last month. The range of the missile is likely to be just over 248 miles.
"The Pyotr
Veliky will start repairs in the third or fourth quarter of 2019.
Repairs and upgrade are due for completion in late 2022, the ship to be
equipped with Zircon hypersonic anti-ship missiles," a source told Tass
at the time.
Previous-generation stealth aircraft, such as the B-2 Spirit and F-117 Nighthawk, were designed to be bombers, lacking the active electronically scanned array
(AESA) radars, low probability of intercept (LPI) data networks, aerial
performance, and air-to-air weapons necessary to engage other aircraft.[5]
In the early 1970s, various American design projects identified
stealth, speed, and maneuverability as key characteristics of a
next-generation air-to-air combat aircraft. This led to the Request for Information for the Advanced Tactical Fighter project in May 1981, which resulted in the F-22.[6]
The USMC is leveraging the USAF's experience with "fifth-generation
air warfare" in the F-22, as they develop their own tactics for the
F-35.[7]
According to Lockheed Martin, the only fifth-generation jet fighter currently in operational service is their own F-22 Raptor.[2][8] US fighter manufacturer Lockheed Martin
uses "fifth generation fighter" to describe the F-22 and F-35 fighters,
with the definition including "advanced stealth", "extreme
performance", "information fusion" and "advanced sustainment".[2] Their definition no longer includes supercruise capability, which has typically been associated with the more advanced modern fighters, but which the F-35 lacks.[9]
Lockheed Martin attempted to trademark the term "5th generation
fighters" in association with jet aircraft and structural parts thereof,[10] and has a trademark for a logo with the term.[11]
The rapid development of the Sukhoi PAK FA and Chengdu J-20 may see a
rival for the F-35 in the future. Russian and Chinese fifth-generation
fighters are expected to enter further development/service in 2017,
which is also the predicted year that the F-35 program will enter the
same stages.[12]
In the late 1980s, the Soviet Union outlined the need for a next-generation aircraft to replace the fourth-generation jet fightersMikoyan MiG-29 and Sukhoi Su-27 in front line service. Two projects were proposed to meet this need: the 4.5 generation fighters Sukhoi Su-47 and Mikoyan Project 1.44 (although the MiG-35 was later modernized to 4.5 generation status). In 2002, Sukhoi was chosen to lead the design for the new combat aircraft.
As the first post-Soviet fighter, the fifth-generation jet fighter Sukhoi PAK FA
will incorporate technology from both the Su-47 and the MiG 1.44 and
when fully developed is intended to replace the MiG-29 and Su-27 in the
Russian inventory. It serves as the basis of the Sukhoi/HAL FGFA project being developed with India.[13][14] The PAK FA is designed to compete against the American F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II. It performed its first flight on 29 January 2010[15][16] and the first production aircraft is slated for delivery to the Russian Air Force by 2017.[17]
Russia is also constructing a lightweight stealth multirole fighter, the Mikoyan LMFS (MiG-1.27) by aircraft manufacturer Mikoyan. This jet fighter is based on the cancelled MiG-1.44.[18]
By the late 1990s, several Chinese fifth-generation fighter programs, grouped under the program codename J-XX
or XXJ, were identified by western intelligence sources. PLAAF
officials have confirmed the existence of such a program, which they
estimate will enter service between 2017–2019.[19][20] Nevertheless, Robert Gates has claimed that the United States may possess as much as 20 times more "advanced stealth fighters" than China by 2020.[21] By late 2010, two prototypes of the Chengdu J-20 had been constructed and were undergoing high-speed taxi trials.[22] The J-20 made its first flight on 11 January 2011.[23]
Another stealth fighter design from SAC started to circulate on the internet in September 2011.[24] In June 2012, photos about a possible prototype of F-60 being transferred on highway began to emerge on the internet.[25] This aircraft was named Shenyang J-31 later, and made its maiden flight on Oct 31, 2012.[26]
India
HAL AMCA, India's fifth generation stealth fighter
India is independently developing a twin-engine fifth-generation stealth multirole fighter, called HAL Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). It is being designed by the Aeronautical Development Agency and will be produced by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited.
Unofficial design work on the AMCA started in 2008 with official design
work started in 2011. First flight of HAL AMCA is estimated to occur in
2023-2024.[27] AMCA would be powered by K 9 or K 10 engine with Supercruise capability without afterburner. The main purpose of the AMCA is to replace the aging SEPECAT Jaguar and Dassault Mirage 2000.
Another project of India is the Sukhoi/HAL Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA), which is a fifth-generation fighter developed together by India and Russia. FGFA is based on Sukhoi PAK FA
which is being developed by Russia. FGFA will include a total of 43
improvements over the existing PAK FA design and will be able to carry
many weapons of Indian origin, however the project is already four years
delayed caused due to multiple issues.[28][29] The cost of the project will be shared equally by India and Russia. The Indian Air Force plans to induct 130 FGFA fighters, down from an earlier estimate of around 220.[28]
As of 2015, AMCA is under development and FGFA is under negotiation.[30]
Japan is currently developing a prototype of a stealth jet fighter called the Mitsubishi ATD-X.
At the beginning of the twenty-first century, Japan, seeking to replace
its aging fleet of fighter aircraft, began making overtures to the
United States on the topic of purchasing several Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor fighters for their own forces.[31]
However the U.S. Congress had banned the exporting of the aircraft in
order to safeguard secrets of the aircraft's technology such as its
extensive use of stealth; this rejection necessitated Japan's
development of its own modern fighter, to be equipped with stealth
features and other advanced systems.
A mock-up of the ATD-X was constructed and used to study the radar cross section
in France in 2009. ATD-X first prototype rolled out in July 2014 and
its first flight will occur in first quarter of 2015. The Mitsubishi
ATD-X Shinshin will enter service in JASDF in 2024 as Mitsubishi F-3.
In 2011 Turkish Aerospace Industries initiated a $20 million concept design phase for a fifth-generation air-to-air fighter, TAI TFX. During a State visit of the President of Turkey to Sweden on the 13th of March 2013, Türk Havacılık ve Uzay Sanayii AŞ (Turkish Aerospace Industries, TAI) signed an agreement with Sweden's Saab AB to provide design support services to Turkey for the TAI TFX program.[32][33][34][35] Turkey is the only JSF
member with a program of its own. Turkish Aerospace Industries has
stated that the program will cost $120 billion (with engine
development).[36] Former Prime Minister Erdoğan
has stated that Turkey has allocated the funds for development of the
fuselage (less engine) and that it intends to have the TAI TFX fully
operational prior to 2025.
On 8 January 2015, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu
announced that the TFX program will be an entirely indigenous platform
with no international support shelving any cooperation with Korea,
Sweden, Brazil or Indonesia. On 13 March 2015 the Turkish
Undersecretariat for Defence Industries (SSM) officially issued a
Request for Information from Turkish companies which had the capacity
"to perform the indigenous design, development and production activities
of the first Turkish Fighter Aircraft to meet Turkish Armed Forces’
next generation fighter requirements", signalling the official start of
the program.
Islamic Republic of Iran
The Qaher F-313
is an Iranian single-seat stealth fighter aircraft that was publicly
announced on 1 February 2013. A press presentation about the project was
made by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi
on 2 February 2013, as part of the Ten-Day Dawn ceremonies. According
to Iranian government sources, the F-313 Qaher was designed and is
indigenously produced in Iran by the Aviation Industries Organization (AIO), a division of the Ministry of Defense, and IRIAF.
Experts from the aviation industry have questioned the airworthiness of
the aircraft; for example the aircraft cockpit is just too small for a
pilot to effectively perform necessary tasks and the air vents are far
too narrow to supply any air to the turbo jet thus, unable to lift off
and sustain flight. It is strongly speculated that Iran does not have
the necessary capabilities to design and develop a 5th generation
fighter all by itself.[37]
Common design elements
Giovanni de Briganti has defined the defining elements of a fifth-generation fighter to be:[38]
In order to minimize their radar cross-section (RCS), all fifth-generation fighters use chines instead of standard leading edge extensions and lack canards,
though the Sukhoi PAK FA T-50 has engine intake extensions that seem to
function somewhat like canards and the Chengdu J-20 designers have
chosen the agility enhancements of canards in spite of their poor
stealth characteristics.[39] They all have twin canted vertical tails (similar to a V-tail) also to minimize side RCS. Most fifth-generation fighters with supermaneuverability achieve it through thrust vectoring.
They all have internal weapon bays in order to avoid high RCS weapon pylons, but they all have external hardpoints
on their wings for use on non-stealthy missions, such as the external
fuel tanks the F-22 carries when deploying to a new theater.
All fifth-generation fighters have a high percentage of composite materials, in order to reduce RCS and weight.
Software defined aircraft
All revealed fifth-generation fighters use commercial off-the-shelf main processors to directly control all sensors to form a consolidated view of the battlespace with both onboard and networked sensors,
while previous-generation jet fighters used federated systems where
each sensor or pod would present its own readings for the pilot to
combine in their own mind a view of the battlespace.[40][41][42] The F-22A was physically delivered without synthetic aperture radar (SAR) or situation awareness infra-red search and track. It will gain SAR later through software upgrades.[43]
However any flaw in these huge software systems can knock out
supposedly unrelated aircraft systems and the complexity of a software
defined aircraft can lead to a software crisis with additional costs and delays.[44][45]
By the end of 2013 the biggest concern with the F-35 program was
software, especially the software required to do data fusion across the
many sensors.[46]
Sukhoi calls their expert system for sensor fusion the artificial intelligence of the PAK-FA.[47]
An automatic software response to an overheat condition apparently has contributed to at least one fatal crash of an F-22.[48]
The F-35 uses Software-defined radio systems, where common middleware controls Field-programmable gate arrays.[49]
Col. Arthur Tomassetti has said that the F-35 is a "software intensive
airplane and software is easy to upgrade, as opposed to hardware."[50]
In order to ease the addition of new software features, the F-35 has adopted a kernel and app separation of security responsibilities.[51]
Steve O'Bryan of Lockheed Martin has said that the F-35 may gain the ability to operate UAVs through a future software upgrade.[52] The USN is already planning to place its Unmanned Carrier-Launched Airborne Surveillance and Strike system under the control of a manned aircraft, to act as a flying missile magazine.[53]
Advanced engines
Fifth-generation jet fighters use the newest generation of high performance jet engines and only the American Pratt & Whitney F119
is fully developed. The engines for the F-35 are still under
development, the Chinese are dependent on Russian engines, and even the
Russians are falling short in the development of the latest jet engines.[54][55]
The combination of stealthy airframes, stealthy sensors, and stealthy
communications is designed to allow fifth-generation fighters to engage
other aircraft before those targets are aware of their presence.[56]
Lt. Col. Gene McFalls of the USAF has said that sensor fusion will feed
into inventory databases to precisely identify aircraft at a distance.[57]
Sensor fusion and automatic target tracking are projected to give the
fifth-generation jet fighter pilot a view of the battlespace superior
to that of legacy AWACS
aircraft that may be forced back from the front lines by increasing
threats. Therefore, tactical control could be shifted forwards to the
pilots in the fighters.[58]Michael Wynne, former Secretary of the United States Air Force, has suggested elimination of the Boeing E-3 Sentry and Boeing E-8 Joint STARS
in favor of more F-35s, simply because so much effort is being made by
the Russians and Chinese to target these platforms that are built to
commercial airliner standards.[59]
However, the more powerful sensors, such as AESA radar which is able
to operate in multiple modes at the same time, may present too much
information for the single pilot in the F-22, F-35 and T-50 to
adequately use. The Sukhoi/HAL FGFA
offered a return to the two-seat configuration common in fourth
generation strike fighters, but this was rejected over cost concerns.[60]
There is ongoing research to apply Track-before-detect across Sensor fusion in the core CPU to allow fifth-generation fighters to engage targets that no single sensor has by itself detected.[61]
Even committed fifth-generation fighter users such as the Israelis
concede that advances in sensors and computing will overcome a pure
stealth configuration within a decade. This is why the Israelis insisted
that the F-35 have defined interfaces so that the electronic warfare
systems could be constantly improved to match the threat.[62] All known fifth-generation designs have extensive electronic warfare systems, partly in response to an incident where the limited EW systems on an F-117 may have led to its loss in combat.[63]
Stealth is now seen as "part of the overall electronic warfare issue",
in that a stealthy platform is easier to hide with the assistance of
jamming.[64]
Chinese state media has claimed that their UHF JY-26 radar has tracked an F-22 on deployment to South Korea.[65]
Gilmary M. Hostage III
has suggested that fifth-generation jet fighters will operate together
in a "combat cloud" along with future unmanned combat aircraft,[66] and Manazir has suggested that this might come as quickly as loading a UCLASS with AMRAAMs to be launched at the command of an F-35.[67]
Critics and alternative definitions
The definition of the term fifth-generation fighter from
Lockheed Martin has been criticized by companies whose products do not
conform to these particular specifications, such as Boeing and Eurofighter, and by other commentators such as Bill Sweetman:[68]
"it is misleading to portray the F-22 and F-35 as a linear evolution in
fighter design. Rather, they are a closely related pair of outliers,
relying on a higher level of stealth as a key element of survivability –
as the Lockheed YF-12 and Mikoyan MIG-25, in the 1960s, relied on speed and altitude."[69]
The United States Navy and Boeing have placed the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet in a "next generation" fighter category along with the F-22 and F-35,[70] as the Super Hornet has a "fifth-generation" AESA radar, modest radar cross-section (RCS) reductions and sensor fusion.[71][72]
A senior USAF pilot has complained about fifth-generation claims for
the Super Hornet: "The whole point to fifth generation is the synergy of
stealth, fusion and complete situational awareness. The point about
fifth-generation aircraft is that they can do their mission anywhere –
even in sophisticated integrated air defense [IADS] environments. If you
fly into heavy IADS with a great radar and sensor fusion, but no
stealth, you will have complete situational awareness of the guy that
kills you."[73] Michael “Ponch” Garcia of Raytheon
has said that the addition of their AESA radars to the Super Hornet
provides "90 percent of your fifth-generation capability at half the
cost."[74] And a top Boeing official has called their newest 4.5 generation fighters "stealth killers".[75]
In response to the use of the "fifth generation" term, Eurofighter
has made a fifth-generation checklist placing different weights on the
various capabilities, and arguing that the application of the label to
strike aircraft such as Lockheed-Martin's F-35 is ill-advised, and even
inconsistent with the aircraft's specifications. Meanwhile, Eurofighter
adds "net-enabled operations" as a noteworthy requirement and
de-emphasizes full-scope low observability as only one factor in
survivability.[76]
In the same article Eurofighter GmbH appear to acknowledge the
remarkable performance of Lockheed Martin's F-22 aircraft, while
demonstrating that labels as simple as "fifth generation" may easily be
devised to serve the interests of the writer.
Richard A. Bitzinger of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, a former consultant for the American RAND Corporation
think tank, suggests that Western Europe's "failure" to develop a
fifth-generation jet fighter may reduce these former leaders in the
market to also-ran status as the world's attention shifts to the
competition between the United States and Asian powers.[77]
Canadians Alex Wilner and Marco Wyss of the Center for Security Studies
claim that Europe's failure to "keep up" with the F-35 may make the
European jet fighter manufacturers close up shop.[78]
However, Europe may return with a trans-national 'sixth-generation'
UCAV, assuming that the political entanglements can be evaded.[79] The European Defence Agency has warned that the European $60 billion industry could collapse by 2020.[80]
The Russian Defense Ministry defines fifth-generation as including
"stealth technology, supersonic cruising speed, highly-integrated
avionics, electronics and fire-control systems".[81]
Flygsystem 2020
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The Flygsystem 2020 ("Flight System 2020", abbreviated FS 2020), is an ongoing project by the Swedish Air Force to develop a stealth fighter by 2020.[1] Little public information exists about the project, which might not be possible due to recent defense budget
cuts; there are no official statements about the current stage of
development, although a video claims to show a miniature prototype test.[2] In 2012, Lieutenant Colonel Lars Helmrich of the Swedish Air Force asked members of the Riksdag to consider the development of a new jet fighter or to upgrade all present JAS 39 multirole fighters to the NG model, claiming the early versions of the aircraft will be useless by 2020.[3]
The Saab/Linköping University Generic Future Fighter project[4][5][6] is a testbed for its technologies.
Partnership with Turkish Aerospace Industries
During a State visit of the President of Turkey to Sweden on the 13th of March 2013, Türk Havacılık ve Uzay Sanayii AŞ (Turkish Aerospace Industries, TAI) signed an agreement with Sweden's Saab to provide design support services to Turkey for the TFX (Turkey) program.[7][8][9][10]
However, the project is under pressure to be abandoned, due to Turkey's participation in the Joint Strike Fighter program.[11]
Developed by the United Aircraft Corporation (OAK), this light fighter is believed to incorporate an engine based on the RD-33
engine, and manufactured at the Klimov factory. The engine is supposed
to be fifth generation, utilizing the latest advancements in turbine and
combustion chamber technology, and only receiving minor changes to the
fan blades.[2]
The Korea Aerospace Industries KF-X/IF-X is a South Korean program to develop an advanced multirole fighter for the Republic of Korea Air Force (ROKAF) and Indonesian Air Force (TNI-AU), spearheaded by South Korea with Indonesia as the primary partner.[2] It is South Korea's second fighter development program following the FA-50.
The project was first announced by South Korean President Kim Dae-Jung at the graduation ceremony of the Korea Air Force Academy
in March 2001. South Korea and Indonesia agreed to cooperate in the
production of KF-X/IF-X warplanes in Seoul on July 15, 2010.[3]
The initial operational requirements for the KF-X/IF-X program as
stated by the ADD (Agency for Defence Development) were to develop a
single-seat, twin-engine jet with stealth capabilities beyond either the
Dassault Rafale or Eurofighter Typhoon, but still less than the Lockheed MartinF-35 Lightning II. The overall focus of the program is producing a 4.5th generation fighter with higher capabilities than a KF-16 class fighter by 2020.[4][5][6] Quantities of the resulting fighter are planned at 120 for the ROK Air Force and 80 for the Indonesian Air Force.[7] South Korea plans to procure it from 2023 to 2030.[1]
According to the Weapon Systems Concept Development and Application Research Center of Konkuk University, the KF-X is intended to be superior to the KF-16, replacing South Korea's aging F-4D/E Phantom II and F-5E/F Tiger II aircraft, with production numbers estimated to be over 250 aircraft. Compared to KF-16,
the KF-X will have a 50% greater combat radius, 34% longer airframe
lifespan, better avionics including a domestically produced AESA radar, and better electronic warfare, IRST, and datalink
capabilities. Operational requirements also specify approx 50,000
pounds of thrust provided by one or preferably two engines, high-speed
interception and supercruise capabilities, basic stealth technology, and
multirole capabilities. There are currently two competing designs for
the KFX, the KFX-201 which has a three-surface layout with canards and a more conventional, Single Engine F-35 style KFX-101 design.
South Korea will fund 60% of the aircraft's development, and expects
foreign partners to provide the remaining 40% of the development
funding.[8] South Korea possesses 63% of the necessary technology to produce the KF-X, and is therefore seeking cooperation from Indonesian Aerospace, Turkish Aerospace Industries, Saab, Boeing, and Lockheed Martin
to develop the KF-X. About 120 KF-Xs would be built initially and more
than 130 aircraft would be produced additionally after the first-phase
models reach operational capability.[9] The cost of each KF-X aircraft is estimated to be roughly $50 million +.[10][11]
In October 2009 a retired ROKAF general was arrested for leaking classified
documents to Saab. The general was to have been given a bribe of
several hundred thousand dollars for copies of a number of secret
documents that he had photographed in the South Korean Defence
University. Saab officials denied any involvement.[12][13][14]
On 15 July 2010, the Indonesian government agreed to fund 20% of KF-X
project cost in return of around 50 planes built for the TNI-AU after
project completion.[15]
In September 2010, Indonesia sent a team of legal and aviation experts
to South Korea to discuss copyright issues of the aircraft.[16]
On 7 September 2010, Maj. Gen. Choi Cha-kyu, director general of the
aircraft program bureau at the Korean Defense Acquisition Program
Administration (DAPA) said that Turkey was interested in joining the program.[9][17]
On 15 December 2010, a senior Turkish procurement official said that
"What we need is a true and equal partnership for the development of a
fighter. The problem is that South Korea is not likely to agree to an
equal partnership".[18]
In December 2010 the program shifted from a F-16 class fighter to a stealth aircraft in order to respond to North Korean pressure.[19]
On 20 April 2011, South Korea's Defense Acquisition Programme
Administration (DAPA) confirmed the signing of a definitive agreement
between South Korea and Indonesia to jointly develop the Korean KF-X
next-generation fighter aircraft.[20]
On 2 August 2011, a joint research center was opened in Daejeon.[21][22]
In a public meeting the Korean Institute for Defense Analysis revealed the development would cost more than 10 trillion won.
Over the lifetime of the program the KF-X would cost more than twice as
much as an imported aircraft. The institute openly questions whether
the U.S. will be willing to help. Similarly in 2007, the Korean
Development Institute reported that the KF-X was not viable. Lee
Daeyearl, KF-X program director at the Agency for Defense Development,
said the fighter would cost 6 trillion won in development, 8 trillion in
production, and 9 trillion for operation over 30 years.[23]
The Agency for Defense Development
has prepared two series of designs, one for an aircraft with aft
horizontal stabilizers, and with a canard stabilizer. The aft-tail
series has run through the iterations C101, C102, and C103, all with two
engines and a single seat. The C102 design was further broken down into
three variants: C102E with one engine, C102I with internal weapons and
C102T with two seats. Similarly, the canard series had the iterations
C201, C202 (also with variants E, I and T) and the current C203 follow
the same pattern. The agency proposes that either C103 or C203,
whichever was chosen, would then advance through three design standards.
Block 1 would be "reduced observable," which would be equivalent to the
B-1B, Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and Eurofighter Typhoon.
Block 1 would rely on fuselage and inlet shaping, edge alignment,
radar-absorbing material, and semiconformal weapons carriage for
reducing signature. Block 2 would carry internal weapons, have conformal
antennas, and sensors would be "integrated". There would be minimal
gaps and additional radarabsorbing coating on the canopy, and the
structure of the aircraft. It would be as stealthy as the F-117. Block 3 would advance the aircraft to the level of the B-2, F-22 and F-35, but no details are given. All of this is a step beyond the previous concept. The aircraft is expected to be between the General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcon and the McDonnell Douglas F-15 Eagle
in size. The C103 design with two engines of 18,000 lb. thrust each.
According to a 2009 external review of the program, the empty mass of
the KF-X should be 10.4 metric tons.[23]
A decision on the selection of either design lines was expected to be made in 2013.[24]
However Indonesian Defense Ministry spokesman Pos Hutabarat announced a
year and a half suspension of the project in 2013. This delay was said
to be caused by uneasiness in the new South Korean government over the
expense of the program.[25]
On 23 May 2013, EADS stated that if South Korea selected its Eurofighter Typhoon as the winner of the F-X Phase 3 fighter program, they would invest $2 billion into the KF-X program.[26]
The F-35A was selected in November 2013 with 40 planned and the
possibility of a split buy for 20 other fighters. EADS has offered a
split buy option for 40 Eurofighters and 20 Lightning IIs, and will keep
the offer to provide funding to the KF-X program if the Eurofighter is
bought.[27]
In July 2013, the Indonesian government announced it intends to continue development of the KF-X. Indonesian Aerospace is getting ready to undertake the second stage of the aircraft's development.[28]
In October 2013 at the Seoul International Aerospace & Defense
Exhibition, two concept models for the KF-X fighter were displayed.
KAI's model, the KFX-E, was designed by the company as a single-engine
aircraft with most systems developed for the T-50 trainer and no
internal weapons bays. Experience from the T-50, and support provided by
Lockheed for that aircraft, was seen as a cost-effective approach, as
KAI officials saw a smaller and cheaper proposal to finally get the
program to launch and enter service around the mid-2020s. There are two
versions of the KFX-E available, the standard one with a single fin and
an optional one with two that would require more development work but
has less radar reflection. Although the KFX-E was smaller than the F-35
Lightning II, it was heavier than both the T-50 and F-16, with a 14
percent higher internal fuel capacity than the F-16C Block 40 at 6.36
tons. Its larger wing compared to the F-16 would produce more drag and
make it accelerate slower. The other model was designed by Seoul's
Agency for Defense Development, who became a competitor to KAI when they
judged the ADD design for a twin-engine plane requiring more domestic
systems development as too ambitious. There are actually two ADD
proposals, the C103 and C203, both weighing 11 tons empty. They propose
initially fielding a low-observable aircraft, then later versions would
have full stealth and internal weapons bays. The ADD designs have the
advantage of being worked on with Indonesia, the main foreign partner.
The C103 and KFX-E have similar tail-aft sections, while the C203 has
forward horizontal stabilizers.[7][29]
In September 2015, the Defense Acquisition Program Administration
(DAPA) said U.S. has refused to grant export license for key
technologies for the program, including Active Scanned Electronic Array
(AESA) radar, Infra-red Search and Tracking (IRST) system,
Electro-Optical tracking system and next generation radio frequency
jammers for indigenous production, delaying the development until at
least 2025.[30] The two countries agreed to set up "a working group for technology cooperation on the defense industry" instead.[31]
On 5 January 2014, DAPA announced the approval of development of the
KF-X after nearly a decade of attempts with the allocation of 20 billion
won (US $19 million). With the start of development, the feasibility of
designs and specifications began to be reviewed. The ADD concepts
include the F-35-style C103 and the European-style C203 with canards in a
stealth frame; both would be powered by minimum of two 20,000 lb
(9,100 kg) engines. ADD claims an aircraft larger than the KF-16 has
more room for upgrades; a KF-X Block 2 would have internal weapons bays,
and a Block 3 would have true stealth comparable to the F-35 or B-2.
The Air Force prefers a twin-engine fighter for safety and range. KAI's
offering has been dubbed the C501, a concept with a single 29,000 lb
(13,000 kg) engine based on the FA-50 with low-observable features and
advanced avionics. The C501 is modeled for affordability and performance
based on available technologies. Lockheed, who co-designed the T-50 jet
trainer, supports the single-engine concept for being cheaper and
quicker to develop than a clean-sheet aircraft, but says it will support
whichever decision is made. The Korea Institute for Defense Analyses
(KIDA) also supports KAI, believing South Korea is not yet ready or able
to compete with fighters made by U.S. or European companies; they
expect the development cost of the program will be at least 10 trillion
won ($927 million).[1]
Bidding by manufacturers for the KF-X was to begin in April 2014. The
desire to domestically develop a fighter is driven in part by the
intention to export it to foreign buyers, something the country could
not do with American-built aircraft. The design of the fighter was still
not decided upon, with the ADD proposing the twin-engine clean-sheet
C103, and DAPA favoring the single-engine C501 largely derived from
technology from the FA-50. The ROK Air Force is interested in a
twin-engine aircraft that, although more expensive, has a larger payload
capacity, longer range, greater safety if an engine is lost, and better
ability to incorporate future upgrades; the initial 4.5-generation C103
can be later upgraded to fifth-generation standard. Developing the C501
would result in a fourth-generation fighter that cannot replace the
country's F-15 and F-16 fighter fleets in the future, and would be
obsolete by the time it is planned to enter service around 2023 by
advanced stealth jets fielded by South Korea's neighbors. Upsizing the FA-50
airframe into the C501 would be more expensive to redesign its
aerodynamics and would lengthen development time. In November 2013, the
Korea Institute of Science and Technology Evaluation and Planning
(KISTEP) calculated the single-engine C501 to be cheaper and faster to
develop than the C103, 6.4 trillion won over 8.5 years compared to 8.6
trillion won over 10.5 years, and cost 1 trillion won less to operate
and maintain. KAI believes the smaller C501 has better export potential
as a medium affordable jet aircraft, possibly to take the place of the
closing American F-16 production line; using two large engines may make
the KF-X to big and expensive for most of the export fighter market. The
Defense Ministry would decide which type of aircraft to proceed with,
and the program will be mostly government-funded with limited company
financial support.[32]
Along with the final decision on 24 March 2014 to buy the Lockheed
F-35 for F-X Phase 3, Seoul plans to ask Lockheed to assist in the
development of the KF-X and shoulder 20 percent of the cost. The
government is funding 60 percent of development, and Indonesia is taking
up another 20 percent. As part of the F-35 deal, Lockheed has offered
to provide "300 man-years’ worth of engineering expertise" to assist in
designing the KF-X, along with more than 500,000 pages of technical
documentation derived from the F-16, F-35, and F-22. Lockheed has had
successful joint aircraft development with South Korea in the past;
during T-50 jet trainer development, Lockheed covered 13 percent of
costs, with KAI covering 17 percent, and the government taking the
remaining 70 percent. However, the company is apprehensive about
supporting the KF-X program as it may create a medium fighter that can
be a competitor in the export marker against their own fighters.[33]
The KF-X program is being accelerated, with required operational
capabilities to be confirmed by mid-July 2014, and bidding to start as
early as one month later. The ADD and ROKAF appeared to have chosen a
double-engine airframe for greater payload, mobility, thrust, and
safety; proponents for a single-engine design maintain that it would be
cheaper, more appealing for export, and that modern engine technologies
make engine failure incidents rare. Efforts to accelerate the program
may be to address the "air security vacuum" that would occur by 2019,
when all F-4s and F-5s would be retired and leave the Air Force 100
planes short.[34]
The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) met that month and officially set
specifications and a schedule for the KF-X. The KF-X will be equipped
with two engines to address future operational needs and keep up with
neighboring countries’ aircraft development trends. Heated debates from
KIDA, KAI, and the Korea Defense and Security Forum over the higher
costs of developing a twin-engine fighter, the potential difficulty in
selling it abroad, and that higher costs would block creation of
indigenous avionics and force the adoption of foreign systems were
countered by Air Force and ADD arguments that Indonesian support will
lower costs during mass production, most technologies were already
created independently, and that a larger aircraft has more room for
upgrades. The initial design is to be a 4.5 generation fighter with a
20,000 lb (9,100 kg)+ payload, with the KF-X Block 2 having an internal
weapons bay, and the Block 3 having stealth features comparable to the
F-35 Lightning II or B-2 Spirit. Initial operating capability (IOC) is
scheduled for 2025, two years later than previously expected.[35]
DAPA issued a request for proposals on 23 December 2014. The finance
ministry approved an 8.6991 trillion won ($7.9171 billion) budget for
development of the ADD KF-X design, but parliament will not authorize
that spending or launch full-scale development until it votes on the
government's 2016 budget in December 2015. During that time, Airbus, Boeing, and Korean Airlines
are attempting to propose a cheaper alternative to the ADD fighter
design and deprive Lockheed Martin of an opportunity to provide
technical assistance. The team is likely to offer a version of the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet
as a base design. Because the U.S. limits certain technologies that can
be transferred abroad, Boeing can provide stealth and radar knowledge
through the European Airbus company.[36]
On the 9 February 2015 deadline for submissions, the KAI/Lockheed
Martin team submitted their bid but Korean Air and Airbus Defense failed
to, the reason likely being more time needed for preparation. Since
Korean law mandates at least two bidders for the auction to be valid,
the deadline for a second auction was pushed to 24 February. Failure to
get another bid in when required will likely delay the program's
schedule. If another bid is not received by the third auction, the arms
procurement agency is allowed to push forward with only one participant.[37]
On 30 March 2015 KAI/Lockheed Martin was chosen for the KF-X contract over Korean Air and Airbus Defense.[38]
The Sukhoi/HAL Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) or Perspective Multi-role Fighter (PMF) is a fifth-generationfighter being developed by India and Russia. It is a derivative project from the PAK FA (T-50 is the prototype) being developed for the Russian Air Force.
FGFA was the earlier designation for the Indian version, while the
combined project is now called the Perspective Multi-Role Fighter (PMF).[5]
The completed FGFA will include a total of 43 improvements over the T-50, including stealth, supercruise, advanced sensors, networking and combat avionics.[6][7] Two separate prototypes will be developed, one by Russia and a separate one by India. Russia agreed to the demand of the Indian Air force that it must be a two-seater fighter. The Indian version will be a two-seater for pilot and co-pilot/Weapon Systems Operator (WSO).
Following the success of the BrahMos project, Russia and India agreed in early 2007 to jointly study and develop a Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) programme.[8][9] On 27 October 2007 Sukhoi's director Mikhail Pogosyan stated: "We will share the funding, engineering and intellectual property in a 50–50 proportion", in an interview with Asia Times.[10]
On 11 September 2010, it was reported that India and Russia had
agreed on a preliminary design contract, subject to Cabinet approval.
The joint development deal would have each country invest $6 billion and
take 8–10 years to develop the FGFA fighter.[11]
In December 2010, a memorandum of understanding for preliminary design
of the Indo-Russian fighter was reportedly signed between Hindustan
Aeronautics Ltd (HAL), and Russian companies Rosoboronexport and Sukhoi.[12][13] The preliminary design will cost $295 million and will be complete within 18 months.[14]
On 17 August 2011, media reports stated that the new fighter will cost
Russia and India $6 billion to develop, and India will pay about 35% of
the cost.[15][16]
The Indian version, according to the deal, will be different from the Russian version and specific to Indian requirements.[17]
While the Russian version will be a single-pilot fighter, the Indian
variant will be based on its own operational doctrine which calls for
greater radius of combat operations. The wings and control surfaces need
to be reworked for the FGFA.[18]
Although, development work has yet to begin, the Russian side has
expressed optimism that a test article will be ready for its maiden
flight by 2009, one year after PAK FA scheduled maiden flight and
induction into service by 2015.[19]
By February 2009, as per Sukhoi General Director Mikhail Pogosyan,
India will initially get the same PAK FA fighter of Russia and the only
difference will be the software.[20]
In 2010, a total of 500 aircraft were planned with options for further aircraft. Russian Air Force will have 200 single-seat and 50 twin-seat PAK FAs while Indian Air Force will get 166 single seated and 48 twin-seated FGFAs.[21][22]
At this stage, the Sukhoi holding is expected to carry out 80% of the
work involved. Under the project terms, single-seat fighters will be
assembled in Russia, while Hindustan Aeronautics will assemble
two-seaters.[23]
HAL negotiated a 25 per cent share of design and development work in
the FGFA programme. HAL's work share will include critical software
including the mission computer, navigation systems, most of the cockpit
displays, the counter measure dispensing (CMD) systems and modifying
Sukhoi's prototype into fighter as per the requirement of the Indian Air
Force (IAF).[24]
Sukhoi director Mikhail Pogosyan projected a market for 1,000
aircraft over the next four decades, 200 each for Russia and India and
600 for other countries in 2010.[25]
Russian Trade Minister Viktor Khristenko said that the aircraft are to
be jointly developed and produced with India and both countries will
"share benefits from selling the plane not only on their domestic
markets, but also on the markets of third countries."[26]
The Editor-in-chief of Natsionalnaya Oborona, Dr Igor Korotchenko, said
in February 2013 that exports of the jointly designed fighter should
help Russia increase its share of arms exports to the world.[27]
In 2011, it was reported that IAF would induct 148 single-seat as
well as 66 twin-seat variants of the FGFA. IAF plans to induct the first
lot of aircraft by 2017.[28] By 2012, this had been changed to 214 single seat aircraft.[29]
Project changes and delays
In May 2012, the Indian Ministry of Defence (MoD) announced a
two-year delay in the project's development. The then Defence Minister A
K Antony had said that the FGFA would join the Indian Air Force by
2017. However, his deputy, M M Pallam Raju, told the Parliament that the
fifth generation aircraft is scheduled to be certified by 2019,
following which the series production will start.[30]
Ashok Nayak, who spoke on the record as HAL's chairman before retiring,
explained that the IAF have required 40-45 improvements made from the
PAK-FA to meet Indian needs. These changes were then formally agreed
upon between India and Russia.[30]
There is apprehension that the FGFA would significantly exceed its
current $6 billion budget, because this figure reflects the expenditure
on just the basic aircraft. Crucial avionics systems would cost extra.
The Russian and Indian air forces each plan to purchase about 250 FGFAs,
at an estimated $100 million per fighter for an $25 billion total, in
addition to the development costs.[30]
By October 2012, India had cut its total purchase size from 200 to 144
aircraft. India's initial investment had grown from $5 billion to $6
billion, and the estimated total programme cost had grown to $30
billion.[2]
In 2013, it was revealed that the Russian and Indian fighters would be using the same avionics.[31] Alexander Fomin said that "Both sides involved in this project are investing a lot into it, and on equal terms."[32] Russia later admitted to huge delays and cost overruns in the project.[33]
The first prototype delivery has been delayed by one or two years. The
contract has not be finalised, and the IAF has accused HAL of giving
away up to half of India's share of the development work.[34][35] India contributes 15 percent of the research and development work, but provides half the cost.[36]
India has "raised questions about maintenance issues, the engine,
stealth features, weapon carriage system, safety and reliability".[37] After repeated delays in the fighter's design and workshare arrangements Indian Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar said in January 2015, "We have decided to fast-track many of the issues."[38] The HAL is to receive three Russian prototypes, one per year from 2015 to 2017 for evaluation.[39]
On 9 March 2015, media outlets reported that the countries agreed to
reduce the aircraft delivery time from 92 months to 36 months with the
signing of the final agreement. India is also ready to forego a 50:50
work share to prevent further delays from absorption of a new
technology; both countries agreed to manufacture the first batch of
aircraft in Russia and for subsequent batches to be manufactured by HAL.[40][41][42]
Design
Radar with APAA for the PAK FA/FGFA is provided by NIIP
Although there is no reliable information about the PAK FA and FGFA specifications yet, it is known from interviews with people in the Russian Air Force that it will be stealthy, have the ability to supercruise, be outfitted with the next generation of air-to-air, air-to-surface, and air-to-ship missiles, and incorporate an AESA (active electronically scanned array)
radar. The PAK FA/FGFA will use on its first flights 2 Saturn 117
engines (about 147.1 kN thrust each). The 117 is an advanced version of
the AL-31F, but built with the experience gained in the AL-41F
programme. The AL-41F powered the Mikoyan MFI fighter (Mikoyan Project 1.44).
Later versions of the PAK FA will use a completely new engine (107 kN
thrust each, 176 kN in full afterburner), developed by NPO Saturn or
FGUP MMPP Salyut.
Three Russian companies will compete to provide the engines with the final version to be delivered in 2015–2016.[43]
Russian expertise in titanium structures will be complemented by India's experience in composites like in the fuselage.[21]
HAL is to be contributing largely to composites, cockpits and avionics
according to company statements made in September 2008. HAL is working
to enter into a joint development mechanism with Russia for the
evolution of the FGFA engine as an upward derivative of the AL-37.[citation needed] Speaking to Flight International,
United Aircraft chief Mikhail Pogosyan said India is giving engineering
inputs covering latest airframe design, Hi-Tech software development
and other systems.[44]
By August 2014, the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) had completed
the front end engineering design for the FGFA for which a contract had
been signed with India's HAL in 2010. Preparation of contract for full-scale development is in progress.[45]
Differences for FGFA
The FGFA will be predominantly armed with weapons of Indian origin such as the Astra, a beyond-visual-range missile
(BVR) being developed by India. Although in keeping with the Russian
BVR doctrine of using a variety of different missiles for versatility
and unpredictability to countermeasures, the aircraft is expected to
have compatibility with various missile types. The FGFA may include
systems developed by third parties.[46]
The completed joint Indian/Russian versions of the operational
fighters will differ from the current flying prototypes through the
addition of stealth, supercruise, sensors, networking, and combat
avionics for a total of 43 improvements.[6]
Russia agreed to the demand of the Indian Air force that it must be a two-seater fighter.[47] The Indian version will be a two-seater that will, "accommodate one pilot and a co-pilot who will function as a Weapon Systems Operator (WSO)."[38]
Specifications (PAK FA and FGFA - projected)
Most of these figures are for the Sukhoi T-50 prototype and not the finished HAL FGFA.
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